Doctor says Arizona’s next measles outbreak is ‘just a matter of time’

PHOENIX – Arizona hasn’t had any measles cases yet this year, but a local medical expert thinks “it’s just a matter of time” as vaccination rates decline.

Eight U.S. states have reported cases in 2025, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, including neighboring California and New Mexico.

Meanwhile, Texas officials announced Wednesday that an unvaccinated school-age child died from the measles last week.

“It’s just a matter of time. If there are not enough people who are vaccinated, we’ll start to see outbreaks of measles in Arizona, as well. It’s a highly, highly contagious virus,” Dr. Manav Jasrotia, chairman of medicine at the Abrazo West Campus in Goodyear, told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Tuesday.

Arizona health officials confirmed several measles cases in 2024, including three in Maricopa County.

Measles can manifest itself as rash that usually starts on the head and spreads down the rest of the body. Other possible symptoms are high fever, cough, runny nose and watery eyes.

The disease spreads easily among people who aren’t vaccinated.

“All the outbreaks are predominantly in individuals who have not had the vaccines,” Jasrotia said.

Measles vaccine rate has been declining

According to Arizona Department of Health Services data, 88.1% of the state’s kindergarten students had two doses of the MMR vaccine (measles, mumps and rubella) in the 2023-24 school year.

Arizona’s MMR vaccination rate has been falling for years, mirroring national trends. It was 93.5% for 2019-20 school year.

Jasrotia said people have been more reluctant to get themselves or their children vaccinated since the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Some of its stems from their personal experiences where they got the vaccine and still had COVID or felt it was not adequately effective,” he said.

There is no reason to have that type of concern with the measles vaccine, Jasrotia said.

“People who are vaccinated, they’re very safe. This vaccine is very effective,” he said.

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Kate Ourada contributed to this report.

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