AZ Political Podcast: Why Democrat Jonathan Nez thinks this election could be different

Democrat Jonathan Nez told me on this week’s AZ Political Podcast that a lot has changed since the fall of 2024. I’m pretty sure Nez is hoping that a lot of that change took place in the minds of Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District voters.

2024 was the first time that Nez, the former president of the Navajo Nation, ran to unseat Republican Congressman Eli Crane in CD2. Since the outcome of that election saw Crane win by a 54.5% to 45.5% margin, I’ll bet Nez is hoping 2024 will be the first — and the last — time he loses.

Some numbers are certainly favoring Nez more this year: According to a late August poll by Democratic firm GBAO Strategies, Crane only has a 2-point advantage (46% to 44%) over Nez — putting them in a statistical tie.

However, some other numbers don’t break Nez’s way, like party registration. CD2 is 39% Republican, 27% Democratic and 31% independent (no party designated). But, that GBAO poll shows Nez with a 22-point advantage among independents.

Nez told me about another thing that’s changed. “In the last cycle, I didn’t get any party support; it was grassroots,” he said. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has come through with ad support this year.

Good thing for Nez, too, because the Federal Election Commission report filed just before the Primary Election showed that Crane had raised almost $9.5 million — putting him at No. 14 among all House candidates nationwide. Meanwhile, Nez’s $3.5 million ranked him at 125th.

That’s not a lot of money to cover a lot of ground — which CD2 has in spades. The 10th-largest congressional district in the country, CD2 covers the entirety of five counties and parts of four others — and is more than 300 miles long from top to bottom.

And since we are on the topic of money, let’s finish there — because money is what Nez is banking on to be the top-of-mind topic for voters. And the issue that could create a different outcome in this election cycle. Because Nez believes the difference in affordability of living life now versus when he lost to Crane two years ago will make all the difference this time around.

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