New polling shows Donald Trump’s approval hitting record low in Arizona

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating in Arizona has fallen to the lowest level recorded during either of his terms, according to a new poll from Noble Predictive Insights released Thursday.

The Arizona Public Opinion Pulse survey, which was conducted May 5-7, found Trump’s statewide job approval at net -17, while his handling of the economy stood at net -27. The poll surveyed 996 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

“We’ve polled Arizona more than anyone else in the country,” Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, told KTAR News 92.3 FM. “Three months ago he was at negative 13 overall job approval with Arizona voters, which was actually the same job approval he was at just after January 6th, which was his lowest point. But now he’s actually minus 17, so four points exceeding his lowest prior.”

Donald Trump’s Arizona polling approval by the numbers

While Trump retains 80% approval among Arizona Republicans, the poll showed sharp erosion among swing groups: Only 27% of independents, 24% of moderates, 31% of Hispanic voters, 37% of women and 24% of voters ages 18-29 approve.

Just 21% of moderates and 25% of independents approve of his handling of the economy.

“When you look at his job approval on the economy, it’s negative 27 with Arizona voters. That’s wild, especially with some of the core groups like independents he’s doing terrible with: people under a $50,000 household income, younger voters,” Noble said. “A lot of these swingier demographics that you need for the general election.”

Gov. Katie Hobbs barely stays afloat in polls

The latest poll shows Hobbs holding a slightly positive job approval rating, though voters were evenly split on her handling of the state’s economy.

“Donald Trump is the CEO of the federal government. Then you have Arizona’s Katie Hobbs, who’s the CEO of the state government,” Noble said. “Where they’re laying that blame, it’s not with Katie Hobbs or the Democrats. It’s clearly with Trump.”

Democrats hold a narrow one-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, with nearly one in five voters undecided. Among independents, 39% are undecided, with the group leaning Democratic by 15 points.

“This is not a wave environment, but the political climate has moved somewhat leftward,” Noble said. “Arizona’s a small shift away from independents and moderates, where they can really matter and shape the outcome come November.”

The poll also found inflation, affordable housing, healthcare and immigration remain the top four issues, but healthcare has edged ahead of immigration for third. Noble said the healthcare concern was not about access or quality, but cost.

“It’s really health insurance costs and cost of care,” Noble said. “The data for this general election or this midterm election coming up, it’s pretty clear. It’s not going to be about social issues or foreign policy. This is going to be really about who can put some money back into people’s pockets, because people are feeling the squeeze.”

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