Phoenix forecast calls for potential record highs followed by possible monsoon storms

PHOENIX – The metro Phoenix weather forecast for the week of the July 4 holiday calls for potential record high temperatures followed by possible monsoon storm activity.

Monday’s expected high at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, which the National Weather Service (NWS) uses for the city’s official readings, is 116 degrees.

Very hot temperatures will persist through Tuesday with highs today topping 115°F in some areas. Phoenix may set a daily record high today with a forecast high of 116°. Fortunately, cooler weather is expected by mid-week as thunderstorm activity moves into the region. #azwx #cawx pic.twitter.com/TVpucUPDba

— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) June 30, 2025

That would be hot enough to top Phoenix’s record for June 30 of 115 degrees from 2013.

Phoenix’s 35-year-old daily heat record for the next day will be threatened, too. The Tuesday forecast calls for a high of 114 degrees, 1 degree shy of the record high temperature for July 1 from 1990.

Potential record high temperatures could give way to monsoon storms

An extreme heat warning for the Valley that was activated Sunday morning is set to expire Tuesday evening.

By then, the area could start seeing the first signs of storm activity this monsoon season.

“We’ve got anywhere from a 15% to 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms potentially developing tomorrow, mainly in the evening and overnight hours,” Alex Young of the NWS in Phoenix told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Monday morning.

The possibility of rain remains in the metro Phoenix weather forecast through Thursday morning.

“In general, we can’t rule out any good downpours in any part of the Valley, especially on Wednesday and Wednesday night,” Young said.

In addition, temperatures will cool off throughout the week after the extreme heat warning expires. By the Fourth of July on Friday, the highs are expected to be in the lower 100s, below the normal range of about 107 degrees for this time of year.

What was hottest day of year in Phoenix so far?

Phoenix’s hottest day of the year so far was June 19, when it reached 117 degrees in the midst of the last extreme heat warning.

The NWS issues extreme heat warnings when dangerous heat is happening or imminent.

Due to the conditions, the following Phoenix hiking trails are restricted from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. on extreme heat warning days:

• Camelback Mountain: Echo Canyon Trail and Cholla trail.
• Phoenix Mountains Preserve: Piestewa Peak Summit Trail and associated trails.
• South Mountain Park and Preserve: Holbert Trail, Mormon Trail, Hau’Pal Loop Trail and access to the National Trail from the Pima Canyon Trailhead.

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Colton Krolak contributed to this report.

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