Arizona gas prices expected to fall, but tariffs create uncertainty

PHOENIX – President Donald Trump’s tariffs are creating uncertainty for gas prices in Arizona and across the nation, according to an industry expert.

The latest projections call for prices to drop after a recent spike, but the situation remains unstable, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Monday.

“We are likely to see a bit of a break … as lower oil prices and a big drop in the wholesale price of gasoline do start to push prices lower in the week ahead,” he said.

The price for a barrel of oil is down to its lowest level since 2021 De Haan said, attributing it to a drop in demand due to tariffs.

“Tariffs are a tax costing consumers more, and they will have less to spend,” he explained. “And along with spending less, consumers also then drive less, they travel less, they buy fewer goods, which means less oil consumption.”

The national average, which was at $3.26 per gallon on Monday morning, according to AAA, could be heading below $3.00, De Haan said.

Arizona gas prices at mercy of tariff policy, other factors

However, the Arizona average, which was $3.41, is unlikely to drop that far. De Haan said he expects Arizona gas prices to fall around 5-10 cents per gallon over the next week or two, but he also warned that the trend could change due to a variety of factors.

“If the Trump administration backs off on some of its tariffs, we could see gas prices going right back up,” he said. “So, before we hope and think that these prices will come to fruition, there’s a possibility that the market could go right back up if there’s an abrupt U-turn in policy.”

Other factors could come into play, too. For example, it’s nearly time for parts of Arizona, including metro Phoenix, to switch to cleaner burning fuel blends for the summer, which typically leads to higher prices.

In addition, refinery issues in California, which can impact supplies in Arizona, are always a concern.

“For now, I’m likely to think that ultimately with all of these levers moving, it’s probably going to mean lower prices in the near future,” De Haan said. “But again, if these levers suddenly shift directions, it could greatly change the outcome.”

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Colton Krolak contributed to this report.

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