Charlie Kirk for Arizona governor? Here’s what a new poll says about his chances

PHOENIX – If he runs for governor next year, conservative activist Charlie Kirk would have as good a chance at winning the Republican nomination as any of the current candidates, according to poll results released Wednesday.

Kirk, a Valley resident who is closely aligned with President Donald Trump, is rumored to be considering a gubernatorial run, although he hasn’t announced his intentions.

However, the Turning Point USA co-founder was included in a hypothetical field of six potential GOP primary candidates in polling conducted Feb. 11-13 by Phoenix-based research firm Noble Predictive Insights (NPI).

The survey of 374 registered Republicans included two declared candidates – U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs and 2022 candidate Karrin Taylor Robson – and four speculative options: Kirk, Arizona Treasurer Kimberly Yee, state Sen. Jake Hoffman and Jack McCain, the son of late Arizona political icon John McCain.

How did Charlie Kirk fare in Arizona poll?

Kirk and Biggs tied for the most support at 14% each, followed by Taylor Robson at 11%, McCain at 8%, Yee at 5% and Hoffman at 1%. Nearly half of those surveyed, 47%, weren’t ready to take a side.

“Arizona Republicans are still getting to know their potential candidates, which is reflected in the high number of undecided voters,” David Byler, NPI chief of research, said in a press release.

Kirk and Biggs are longtime dedicated Trump supporters, but the president gave his early endorsement to Taylor Robson in the Arizona gubernatorial race. That could be a significant factor down the road, according to the poll results.

In fact, 71% of those surveyed said they would be much more or somewhat more likely to vote for the candidate endorsed by Trump.

“Even though Republicans don’t know who they’ll pick, they know what type of candidate they’re looking for,” Byler said.

Pollster also looked at GOP matchups against Gov. Katie Hobbs

Meanwhile, NPI also surveyed a sample of 1,006 registered voters from across parties about how the potential GOP candidates might fare in the general election against Gov. Katie Hobbs.

The Democratic incumbent led all of the Republican options, although about 1/5 of those surveyed were unsure in each hypothetical matchup. Her lead was the smallest against McCain and the largest against Taylor Robson. Here is the breakdown for the six potential races:

• Hobbs 37%, McCain 36%, not sure 21%, third-party candidate 6%
• Hobbs 40%, Biggs 38%, not sure 17%, third-party candidate 5%
• Hobbs 39%, Kirk 36%, not sure 18%, third-party candidate 7%
• Hobbs 40%, Hoffman 35%, not sure 20%, third-party candidate 5%
• Hobbs 40%, Yee 34%, not sure 20%, third-party candidate 6%
• Hobbs 43%, Taylor Robson 35%, not sure 18%, third-party candidate 4%

“Despite being an incumbent, Gov. Hobbs is far from secure,” Mike Noble, founder and CEO of NPI, said in the release. “With multiple candidates already polling within striking distance, the data suggests this will be a close race from start to finish.”

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