Democrats stay ahead in polling for Arizona’s presidential, Senate races

PHOENIX – With early voting underway and Election Day less than three weeks away, new polling showed Democrats holding their leads in Arizona’s two top races.

A poll of likely voters by OH Predictive Insights released Thursday, however, showed the Republican incumbents gaining ground.

The poll, which was conducted Oct. 4-8, showed former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump 49%-45% in Arizona, which hasn’t been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton 1996.

OHPI’s Arizona presidential poll in September showed Biden leading by 10 percentage points.

#AZPOP #POLL Biden continues to lead Trump in the homestretch of election season #BattlegroundAZ #Election2020

Biden (D): 49%
Trump (R): 45%
Jorgensen (L): 4%
Undecided: 2%

n= 608, MoE +/- 4.0%, survey conducted 10/4-10/8
Read our full release here > https://t.co/Q7mkk2zotE pic.twitter.com/CFfRDDGbXy

— OHPI (@OHPredictive) October 15, 2020

“This race keeps narrowing as ballots start reaching voters’ mailboxes,” OHPI chief pollster Mike Noble told KTAR News 92.3 FM.

“However, President Trump remains in danger of becoming the first Republican in a generation to lose Arizona.”

The same poll saw Democratic challenger Mark Kelly with a 50%-45% lead over Sen. Martha McSally, a 5-point swing in the Republican’s favor since OHPI’s September survey.

#AZPOP #POLL Kelly continues to earn the support of Arizonans compared to McSally #BattlegroundAZ #Election2020

Kelly (D): 50%
McSally (R): 45%

n= 608, MoE +/- 4.0%, survey conducted 10/4-10/8
Click here for more analysis > https://t.co/XD2r9ohhEL pic.twitter.com/3IU42LGvEF

— OHPI (@OHPredictive) October 15, 2020

While McSally has been able to consolidate her Republican base to tighten the Senate race, Noble said, “She’s currently losing independents to Mark Kelly by a whopping minus-34 points.”

Another poll released Thursday, conducted Oct. 9-13 by Monmouth University, also showed the Democrats ahead, with leads that varied depending on voter likelihood.

ARIZONA VOTER POLL: Presidential race

Registered voters:
50% @JoeBiden
44% @realDonaldTrump

Likely voters, high turnout:
51% Biden
44% Trump

Likely voters, low turnout:
49% Biden
47% Trump https://t.co/FtJ2KbniDX pic.twitter.com/eU5yELZJQo

— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) October 15, 2020

Monmouth showed Biden ahead in Arizona by 6 points among registered voters, with a 7-point edge based on high likely turnout and just a 2-point lead with a low likely turnout.

Kelly led by 10 points for both registered voters and high likely turnout and by 6 points with low likely turnout, according to Monmouth.

The average of all polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight.com showed Biden’s lead in Arizona at 3.8% as of Thursday. The poll aggregating website’s forecast was giving Biden a 67 in 100 chance of winning the state.

The numbers crunchers at FiveThirtyEight are more bullish on Kelly, giving the former astronaut and first-time candidate a 79 in 100 chance of giving Arizona two Democratic senators for the first time since Republican Barry Goldwater first took office in 1953.

Arizona has traditionally leaned Republican but is viewed as a battleground state this year. The McSally-Kelly race is a key prize in the battle for control of the Senate.

FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 73 in 100 chance of taking control of the Senate.

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Gabriel Gamiño contributed to this report.

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