Arizona could lose $600M in 2020 under latest Obamacare repeal bill

PHOENIX — Arizona could lose as much as $600 million in federal funding for Medicaid expansion and the health exchange in 2020 if the Graham-Cassidy bill passes in the Senate next week, the state’s Joint Legislative Budget Committee estimated.

The committee released its analysis on Thursday, just days after Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey came out in support of the Obamacare repeal effort. U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake is also in support of the bill, while Sen. John McCain said he wants it to go through regular order.

According to the committee, the Graham-Cassidy health care proposal would convert federal funding for the Affordable Care Act — otherwise known as Obamacare — Medicaid expansion and health exchanges into a single federal block grant.

Under the ACA, the state is estimated to receive $3.8 billion in federal funding. But under the new proposal, the state would only receive $3.2 billion by the time it takes effect in 2020, leading to a loss of $600 million.

The state’s federal funding for the Medicaid expansion and health exchange, under the ACA, is expected to grow to $4.9 billion by 2020. But if Graham-Cassidy is approved, the state could lose $1.7 billion in total federal funding by 2020.

While other studies have also estimated that Arizona could lose $133 billion in federal funding, the committee said “any multi-year estimate is highly speculative. It is very difficult to estimate federal spending under current law given existing uncertainty in the market.”

The committee also declined to estimate how many people with health insurance would be affected by this plan. “That impact will ultimately depend on state decisions of how to expend the block grant funding,” the committee said.

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