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What’s Putin thinking? Tough to know for nuclear analysts

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin watches the Vostok 2022 (East 2022) military exercise in far eastern Russia, outside Vladivostok, on Sept. 6, 2022. Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File) FILE - In this handout photo taken from a footage released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on March 26, 2021, a Russian nuclear submarine breaks through the Arctic ice during military drills at an unspecified location. Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File) FILE - Russian's Air Force Mikoyan MiG-31K jets carrying Kh-47M2 Kinzhal nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missiles fly over Red Square during a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, Russia, on May 7, 2021. Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (AP Photo, File) FILE - This photo taken from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Feb. 19, 2022, shows a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile being launched from an air field during military drills. Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File) FILE - Ukrainian servicemen drive atop a tank in the recently retaken area of Izium, Ukraine, on Sept. 14, 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File) FILE - In this photo taken from video distributed by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, Intercontinental ballistic missiles are launched by the Vladimir Monomakh nuclear submarine of the Russian navy from the Sera of Okhotsk, Russia, on Dec. 12, 2020. Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File) FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives to watch the military exercises Center-2019 at Donguz shooting range near Orenburg, Russia, on Sept. 20, 2019. Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File) FILE - In this photo released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, Russian nuclear submarines Prince Vladimir, above, and Yekaterinburg are harbored at a Russian naval base in Gazhiyevo, Kola Peninsula, Russia, on April 13, 2021. Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File) FILE - In this photo taken from undated footage distributed by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, an intercontinental ballistic missile lifts off from a silo somewhere in Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File) FILE - In this April 9, 2019 file photo, Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures while speaking at a plenary session of the International Arctic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia. Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (AP Photo, File) FILE - Russian Topol M intercontinental ballistic missile launcher rolls along Red Square during the Victory Day military parade to celebrate 72 years since the end of WWII and the defeat of Nazi Germany, in Moscow, Russia on May 9, 2017. Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File) FILE - In this Aug. 16, 2005 file photo, a supersonic Tu-160 strategic bomber with Russian President Vladimir Putin aboard flies above an airfield near the northern city of Murmansk. Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (Alexei Panov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File) FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, watches through binoculars as Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu sits near during the joint strategic exercise of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus Zapad-2021 at the Mulino training ground in the Nizhny Novgorod region, Russia, on Sept. 13, 2021. Putin's threats to use "all the means at our disposal" to defend his country as it wages war in Ukraine have cranked up global fears that he might use his nuclear arsenal, with the world's largest stockpile of warheads. (Sergei Savostyanov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)