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EXPLAINER: What is behind Turkey’s Syria incursion threats?

FILE - Turkish tanks and troops are deployed near the Syrian town of Manbij, Syria, Oct. 15, 2019. Hardly a day passes in northern Syria without Kurdish fighters and opposition gunmen backed by Turkey exchanging gunfire and shelling and concerns are rising that the situation will only get worse in the coming weeks with Ankara threatening to launch a new major operation along its southern border. (Ugur Can/DHA via AP, File) FILE - Turkish military convoy drives through the village of Binnish, in Idlib province, Syria, Feb. 8, 2020. Hardly a day passes in northern Syria without Kurdish fighters and opposition gunmen backed by Turkey exchanging gunfire and shelling and concerns are rising that the situation will only get worse in the coming weeks with Ankara threatening to launch a new major operation along its southern border. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed, File) FILE - A Syrian Democratic Forces soldier keeps watch by a prison that was attacked by Islamic State militants, in Hassakeh, Syria, Feb. 8, 2022. Hardly a day passes in northern Syria without Kurdish fighters and opposition gunmen backed by Turkey exchanging gunfire and shelling and concerns are rising that the situation will only get worse in the coming weeks with Ankara threatening to launch a new major operation along its southern border. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad, File) FILE - Turkish-backed Syrian opposition fighters wave as they drive to cross the border into Syria, in Akcakale, Sanliurfa province, southeastern Turkey, Oct. 18, 2019. Hardly a day passes in northern Syria without Kurdish fighters and opposition gunmen backed by Turkey exchanging gunfire and shelling and concerns are rising that the situation will only get worse in the coming weeks with Ankara threatening to launch a new major operation along its southern border. (AP Photo/Emrah Gurel, File) FILE - A fighter from the U.S-backed Syrian Manbij Military Council looks through binoculars towards Turkish-backed fighters' positions, at the front line at the village of Halawanji, north of Manbij town, Syria, March 29, 2018. Hardly a day passes in northern Syria without Kurdish fighters and opposition gunmen backed by Turkey exchanging gunfire and shelling and concerns are rising that the situation will only get worse in the coming weeks with Ankara threatening to launch a new major operation along its southern border. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File) FILE - Turkish troops deploy in Syria's northern region of Manbij, Syria, Oct. 14, 2019. Hardly a day passes in northern Syria without Kurdish fighters and opposition gunmen backed by Turkey exchanging gunfire and shelling and concerns are rising that the situation will only get worse in the coming weeks with Ankara threatening to launch a new major operation along its southern border. (AP Photo, File) FILE - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrives for a ceremony, in Ankara, Turkey, May 16, 2022. Analysts say Erdogan is taking advantage of the war in Ukraine to push his own agenda in Syria -- even using Turkey's veto powers as a NATO member to block alliance membership by Finland and Sweden as potential leverage. But an incursion by Ankara would be risky, threatening to upset its ties with both the United States and Russia.  (AP Photo/Burhan Ozbilici, File)