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AP EXPLAINS: How one computer forecast model botched Ian

FILE - Jose Cruz, 13, carries an empty jerrycan through receding flood waters outside his house as his family heads out to look for supplies, three days after the passage of Hurricane Ian, in Fort Myers, Fla., Oct. 1, 2022. Hurricane Ian confounded one key computer forecast model, creating challenges for forecasters and Florida residents. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File) FILE - A member of Florida Task Force 8 urban search and rescue tags a condominium building that has been checked and found clear of people, in Fort Myers Beach, Fla., Oct. 5, 2022, one week after the passage of Hurricane Ian. Hurricane Ian confounded one key computer forecast model, creating challenges for forecasters and Florida residents. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File) FILE - Snowbirds Bruce and Kathy Hickey, both 70, are seen through the windows of a trailer that had been waterfront, as they look at the wreckage of the trailer park where they had a winter home, originally purchased by Kathy's mother in 1979, on San Carlos Island, Fort Myers Beach, Fla., Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2022, one week after the passage of Hurricane Ian. Hurricane Ian confounded one key computer forecast model, creating challenges for forecasters and Florida residents. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File) FILE - Cars and debris from washed away homes line a canal in Fort Myers Beach, Fla., Oct. 5, 2022, one week after the passage of Hurricane Ian. Hurricane Ian confounded one key computer forecast model, creating challenges for forecasters and Florida residents. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)