A Republican winning the White House doesn’t add up

Mar 2, 2016, 2:18 PM
(Facebook Photo)...
(Facebook Photo)
(Facebook Photo)

I am admittedly challenged by math, but I sat down and did some research so I could better understand the challenge ANY Republican nominee is facing in the upcoming presidential election.

First off, some history on voting patterns: Traditionally, the Republican candidate has secured a majority of the white vote.

Mitt Romney received 59 percent of the white vote, John McCain received 55 percent, George W. Bush received 58 percent, you get the pattern.

The problem is that over the last 40 years, the percentage of white voters has been declining, while the percentage of non-white voters has been increasing.

For example, in 1976, Jimmy Carter won the vast majority of the Hispanic vote, but that was only 1 percent of total voters. Eighty-nine percent of voters that year were white.

In 2012, Barack Obama won the Hispanic vote in a landslide. It made up to 10 percent of all voters, while the white vote was down to 72 percent of the electorate.

In 2016, this trend is expected to continue as the demographics of the nation keep shifting.

So the challenge facing the Republicans is dual-fold: How can the nominee encourage non-white voters to support them or how much better must they do with the white vote?

Again, I’ll rely on the math nerds.

In order to secure the votes needed to win the electoral college, the Republican nominee MUST win 64 percent of the white vote and 30 percent of the non-white vote. That’s just math.

Could it happen? Sure. You could also hit three hole-in-ones in your next round of golf, but I’m not willing to bet on it.

If the Republican candidate does hit both these numbers, it will be the first time it’s happened since Ronald Reagan did so in 1984 — a time with VERY different demographics than 2016.

Arizona Election

(Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)...

Special counsel investigating Trump sends subpoena to Valley elections officials

A federal investigator wants know what Donald Trump and his surrogates said to Maricopa County elections officials before and after the 2020 election.
17 hours ago
Katie Hobbs, the Democratic governor-elect and current secretary of state, signs the official certi...

Arizona Sec. of State Katie Hobbs gets recount process started for 3 races

Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs got the state-mandated recount process started Monday by filing documents with the state court system.
2 days ago
Arizona Supreme Court Chief Justice Robert Brutinel, left, signs the official Arizona general elect...
Kevin Stone

Arizona certifies 2022 election, setting stage for lawsuits, recounts

Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs certified the state's 2022 general election Monday, but it doesn’t close the books on the midterms.
2 days ago
Democrat Katie Hobbs arrives for a campaign event at Cesar Chavez High School on Nov. 2, 2022, in P...

Watch: Arizona officials hold statewide canvass to certify election results

Arizona's statewide canvass to certify the Nov. 8 general election results is scheduled for 10 a.m. Monday.
2 days ago
Republican Supervisors Tom Crosby and Peggy Judd (Cochise County Photos)...
Kevin Stone

Hobbs’ office wants Brnovich to investigate Cochise County GOP officials

The Arizona Secretary of State’s Office wants the attorney general to investigate whether Cochise County officials broke the law by delaying their election canvass.
5 days ago
(Facebook Photo/Cochise County - Government)...
Associated Press

Cochise County canvasses midterm election results following judge orders

Cochise County certified the midterm election Thursday afternoon, hours after an Arizona judge ordered officials to certify results by the end of the day.
6 days ago

Sponsored Articles

Children’s Cancer Network

Children’s Cancer Network celebrates cancer-fighting superheroes, raises funds during September’s Childhood Cancer Awareness Month

Jace Hyduchak was like most other kids in his kindergarten class: He loved to play basketball, dress up like his favorite superheroes and jump as high as his pint-sized body would take him on his backyard trampoline.

Key dates for Arizona sports fans to look forward to this fall

Fall brings new beginnings in different ways for Arizona’s professional sports teams like the Cardinals and Coyotes.
Day & Night Air Conditioning, Heating and Plumbing

Here are 4 signs the HVAC unit needs to be replaced

Pool renovations and kitchen upgrades may seem enticing, but at the forefront of these investments arguably should be what residents use the most. In a state where summertime is sweltering, access to a functioning HVAC unit can be critical.
A Republican winning the White House doesn’t add up