Polling provides insight into what Arizona voters expect out of Trump’s return to power
Dec 11, 2024, 9:14 AM
A Phoenix-based research firm asked Arizona voters what they expect from Donald Trump's second term as president. (Noble Predictive Insights Graphic)
(Noble Predictive Insights Graphic)
PHOENIX – Now that Arizona voters have helped return Donald Trump to the White House, what do they expect in his second term as president?
That’s a question Phoenix-based research firm Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) explored in a postelection survey of 988 registered Arizona voters.
The polling was conducted Nov. 20-25, about two weeks after Trump’s victory in the 2024 general election, and the findings were released Wednesday.
Four years after Trump was narrowly defeated by Joe Biden in Arizona, he topped Kamala Harris by more than 185,000 votes last month to claim the state’s 11 electoral votes.
“Arizonans don’t expect Trump to solve every problem in their lives – but they understand what he campaigned on, and they know what improvements they want to see,” NPI CEO Mike Noble said in a press release. “They want the border fixed and they want their economic pain to end. They think Trump can do it. And they’re going to be sorely disappointed if he fails.”
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The NPI polling covered a total of 11 policy issues. The net difference of the results was positive on seven topics and negative on four.
What policies do Arizona voters think will get better under Trump?
Arizona voters were most optimistic about how Trump would address immigration/border issues, national security and the economy.
With Trump in office, 51% believe government policy on immigration and the border will get better vs. 27% who think it will get worse, a plus-24 net difference.
When it comes to national security, 47% think policy will improve and 29% expect it to worsen, a net of plus-18.
Views on the economy are similar, with 46% believing policy will get better vs. 31% thinking it will get worse, a plus-15 net.
The issues of scientific research/space exploration (plus-13), government efficiency (plus-9) and housing prices (plus-6) also have net positive ratings.
“Voters are telling us clearly how they’re going to grade Trump’s second term: on the economy and immigration. The question for the next four years is whether he can deliver,” Noble said.
Arizona voters are most pessimistic about two policy areas
On the downside, Arizonans were most pessimistic, by far, about the Trump effect when it comes to abortion and climate change.
On abortion policy, 41% think it will get worse and just 18% think it will get better, a net of minus-23.
The view is nearly as negative for climate change, with 37% believing policy will worsen and 20% expecting it to improve, a minus-17 net.
Meanwhile, the net differences were slightly negative for health care (minus-3) and education (minus-1).
“If he’s not careful, issues like education, health care and housing could get away from him, and many voters would take issue with that,” David Byler, NPI chief of research, said in the release.
