Here’s what you need to know about Arizona’s automatic recount law

PHOENIX — Although it took a week for Arizona’s U.S. Senate race to be called, it doesn’t meet the requirement for an automatic recount.

By the time The Associated Press called the contest in Ruben Gallego’s favor on Monday night, the Democrat’s lead over Republican Kari Lake was over 72,000 votes, a difference of 2.2 percentage points.

With about 3.2 million votes already counted in the race and the number of uncounted ballots dwindling statewide, the final margin won’t be much different.

It certainly won’t be anywhere near the threshold of 0.5% required to trigger a recount under Arizona election law.

The threshold used to be smaller, just 0.1 points, but then-Gov. Doug Ducey signed a bill in 2022 to expand it.

The change made it more likely that recounts would be required. As a result, it left lawmakers scrambling earlier this year to change the election calendar so there would be enough time to complete recounts ahead of federally mandated deadlines. That’s why Arizona’s primary elections were moved a week earlier to July 30 this year.

How often does an automatic recount change a result?

Recounts may help remove doubts about close contests, but they rarely change a result.

FairVote, a nonprofit that studies election practices, conducted a study a few years ago to gauge the impact of recounts. The group found 35 recounts for statewide races across the nation over two decades, with the outcome flipping three times.

And each time there was a change in the winner, the difference heading into the recount was no larger than 0.06%, well below Arizona’s current and previous thresholds.

Recent Arizona history has followed the trend. For example, Democrat Kris Mayes’ victory in the 2022 attorney general race was confirmed even though Republican Abe Hamadeh trimmed more than 200 votes off her lead during the recount. Most of the difference was caused by an initial undercount in Pinal County that was attributed to human error.

And in this year’s Democratic primary, an automatic recount affirmed Yassamin Ansari’s narrow win over Raquel Terán by 39 votes in their congressional race. That recount reduced the winning margin by three votes.

Will any 2024 Arizona races require an automatic recount?

None of this year’s statewide general election contests are near the threshold, but a recount might be needed before the winner is confirmed in one Maricopa County Board of Supervisors race.

As of midday Tuesday, Republican Kate Brophy McGee was leading Democrat Daniel Valenzuela by just 359 votes, a difference of 0.1%, well within the automatic recount window.

One or two Legislatives seats might also trigger a recount, but that won’t be known until all the votes are counted.

The recount process wouldn’t start until the results from all 15 counties are canvassed. Counties have until Nov. 21 to complete their canvasses, and the Secretary of State’s Office must finish the statewide canvass by Nov. 25.

The Secretary of State’s Office will then file for a court order to authorize any required recounts.

Three recounts after the 2022 general election in Arizona took more than three weeks to complete, but that included two statewide races with more than 2.5 million ballots to tabulate.

A smaller race wouldn’t take as long to recount. For example, the result of this year’s Democratic primary election recount for the 3rd Congressional District was announced five days after the state canvass deadline.

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