Vance and Walz are still relatively unknown, but the governor is better liked, an AP-NORC poll finds

WASHINGTON (AP) — Tim Walz and JD Vance have vaulted themselves out of national obscurity as they hustle to introduce themselves to the country, but the senator from Ohio has had a rockier start than the Minnesota governor.

A poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that Walz had a smoother launch as a running mate to Vice President Kamala Harris than Vance did for former President Donald Trump. About one-third of U.S. adults (36%) have a favorable view of Walz, who will introduce himself to his party when he speaks at the Democratic National Convention on Wednesday. About one-quarter (27%) have a positive opinion of Vance. Significantly more adults also have an unfavorable view of Vance than Walz, 44% to 25%.

Both are well-liked so far within their own parties, while independents are slightly more likely to have a positive view of Walz than Vance, but most don’t know enough about either one yet.

Both VP candidates still need to work to become better known — about 4 in 10 Americans don’t know enough about Walz to have an opinion about him, and roughly 3 in 10 don’t know enough about Vance. Still, both are much better known than they were before they were selected as vice presidential nominees.

Democrats like Walz, but many key groups don’t know enough

As Walz prepares to speak at the convention, about 6 in 10 Democrats said they have a favorable opinion of him, including about 4 in 10 whose opinions are “very favorable.” Roughly 3 in 10 don’t know him well enough to have an opinion. This is the first measure of Walz’s favorability in an AP-NORC poll, but other polls showed he was virtually unknown nationally before he was chosen.

Many key Democratic coalitions still don’t know much about Walz. About 4 in 10 women don’t know enough to have an opinion of him, and about 4 in 10 young adults under age 45 say the same. About half of Black adults and roughly 4 in 10 Hispanic adults don’t know enough to say whether they like him, either. Many lower-income adults and those without college degrees also don’t have a view of Walz.

Data from AP VoteCast shows that when he ran for governor in 2022, Walz won with the support of women, young voters, union households, those living in the suburbs, and people in urban areas. He split the support of white voters and men — two groups where the Harris-Walz team will try to undercut Trump’s advantage. He lost rural voters in the state, as well as households with military veterans.

Samantha Phillis, a 33-year-old home care nurse and mother of four from Mankato, Minnesota, has known Walz for years. She attended Mankato West High School when Walz was a teacher there, and she was in the Gay-Straight Alliance when he was the faculty adviser. Since he became governor, she said, his policies have been “tremendous” for three of her children with disabilities. As a parent, she appreciated his program to provide free school meals for children.

“He was a great asset to Mankato West, and we are huge fans of him. As far as Minnesota goes, he’s done great things for my family,” Phillis said. “I’m really encouraged to see what he could help Kamala Harris do as her vice president.”

Phillis said she was always planning to vote for the Democratic candidate but has been thrilled by the energy and momentum Walz added to the campaign.

“Now that Gov. Walz is on the ticket, I’m all in.”

Vance’s favorability has risen among Republicans

The new AP-NORC polling shows that in the weeks since Vance was selected as Trump’s running mate, Republicans have gotten to know him better and have developed a generally positive view. About 6 in 10 Republicans now have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Vance, a sharp rise since a mid-July poll conducted before the Ohio senator was announced as Trump’s running mate. In that poll, only about 3 in 10 had a favorable view of him, and about 6 in 10 Republicans said they didn’t know enough about Vance to have an opinion.

In the most recent poll, about 2 in 10 Republicans have an unfavorable view of Vance, and about one-quarter say they don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.

Adults older than 45 are somewhat more likely than younger ones to have a positive opinion of Vance, 32% to 22%.

Data from AP VoteCast shows that when Vance ran for Senate in Ohio in 2022, he earned the support of many groups that have become the bedrock of Trump’s political base. About 6 in 10 male voters in the state supported Vance, as well as voters age 45 and over. He also outperformed with young men compared to Republicans nationally. About 6 in 10 male voters under 30 voted for Vance in Ohio, compared to about half for Republican candidates nationwide.

Mary Lynch, a 62-year-old Republican from Marquette, Michigan, said she’s followed Vance through TV interviews since before he ran for Senate. She said her positive view of him has only grown the more she learns about him. She appreciates his support for family-related policies, like anti-abortion measures and school choice.

Lynch supported Republican Nikki Haley during the GOP primaries, but she plans to vote for Trump in November. She likes Trump’s policies, but she struggles with his personality. She sees Vance as a strong future leader for the Republican Party.

“I like (Vance’s) personality a lot. He says things nicer. He doesn’t use hyperbole,” Lynch said. “If Trump wins with JD Vance, I look forward to having JD Vance run for president next.”

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The poll of 1,164 adults was conducted August 8-12, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

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