AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Alaska’s primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — Alaska voters on Tuesday will shrink the pool of contenders for its highly sought-after U.S. House seat from a dozen candidates to just four.

In Alaska, every candidate runs on the same primary ballot, regardless of partisan affiliation. The four candidates with the most votes advance to the general election. The composition of the four-candidate ballot, including each candidate’s party affiliation, shapes the dynamics of the general election, when voters can rank the candidates in order of preference.

Both major political parties are fighting for control of this seat, which had been in Republicans’ hands for decades until Rep. Don Young died in 2022.

Of the 12 candidates on the primary ballot, two are prominent Republicans and one is a well-known Democrat. The Democrat is Rep. Mary Peltola, who first won this seat in a special election in 2022. The Republicans are Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and Nick Begich, who shares a name with his late grandfather, a Democratic congressman who was on a plane that disappeared in 1972.

No other candidates have reported raising money for the race, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Also on the ballot are two other Republicans, one other Democrat, and six others.

Dahlstrom has garnered support from many of the most influential members of the Republican Party, including former President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. Begich has endorsements from House Freedom Caucus members such as Reps. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, Byron Donalds of Florida and Bob Good of Virginia.

Peltola, a former state lawmaker, had been out of office for years when in 2022 she made a long-shot bid for the seat in a race that included Begich and Sarah Palin, a former Republican vice presidential nominee. Peltola went on to win the seat in a special general election that coincided with the regular primary in August 2022.

In that August primary, which included more than 20 candidates, Peltola won 37% of the vote, followed by Palin at 30% and Begich at 26%.

Most state legislative races are uncontested in the primary because four or fewer candidates are running, meaning all would automatically progress to the general election. But there are a couple of exceptions.

In one state Senate district, Republican incumbent Kelly Merrick has raised more than $70,000. In a state Senate led by a bipartisan coalition, Merrick is campaigning as a pragmatist, willing to work with her colleagues across the aisle. She faces a challenge from fellow Republican Jared Goecker, who has also raised more than $70,000. Goecker calls himself a “trusted conservative” and accuses Merrick of being liberal.

Three other candidates are running but have raised significantly less money. They include Republicans Ken McCarty and Sharon Jackson, both former state lawmakers, and Lee Hammermeister, the only Democrat on the ballot. The district includes Eagle River and Chugiak, just north of Anchorage.

In the state House, six candidates are running for the open seat in the 36th District, which is currently represented by a Republican.

A look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Primary day

The last polls close at 1 a.m. EDT Wednesday. Polls in most of the state close at 12 a.m. EDT.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for the U.S. House, state Senate and state House.

Who gets to vote

Any registered voter in Alaska may participate in the state’s “Top 4” primary.

Decision notes

In close contests, some aspects of the way Alaska counts its votes could delay when winners can be determined.

Results published on election night will include ballots cast in person on Election Day and at early voting locations. The state says some absentee ballots may also be counted on Election Day, but most of those ballots will be added to the count for up to 10 days following the election.

Unlike in most other states, results are not tabulated by county or town. Only statewide totals are available when the first results are released, with results by state legislative district typically being posted later on election night or in the days following.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in Alaska are automatic in the event of a tie vote. Candidates may also request and pay for a recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of July 3, there were nearly 604,000 registered voters in Alaska. Of those, 12% were Democrats, 24% were Republicans and 59% were independents or not affiliated with any party.

In the 2022 U.S. Senate primary, turnout was about 32% of registered voters. About 23% of votes in that election were cast before primary day.

As of Wednesday, 6,594 ballots had been cast before primary day.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2022 midterm primary, the AP first reported results at 1:34 a.m. EDT, or 34 minutes after final polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 5:48 a.m. EDT with about 80% of total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 77 days until the November general election.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

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