What polling shows about the top VP contenders for Kamala Harris
Jul 31, 2024, 9:00 PM
This composite left to right, shows Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, center, July 3, 2024, in Washington, Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., June 4, 2024, in Washington, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, July 20, 2024, in Pittsburgh, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear in Frankfort, Ky., July 22, 2024. As Vice President Kamala Harris prepares to announce her running mate, a new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that several of the top potential contenders for the role are largely unknown to voters. (AP Photo)
Credit: ASSOCIATED PRESS
(AP Photo)
As Vice President Kamala Harris prepares to announce her running mate, a new poll from The Mark Kelly stands out as one with more name recognition and higher favorability, particularly among Democrats.
The survey, which was conducted after President Joe Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race and Harris became the likely Democratic presidential nominee, highlights the strengths and weaknesses that different politicians could bring to the ticket — and the challenges they could face if selected.
Kelly, while better known and liked than some of the alternatives, is still unfamiliar to about half of Americans. And others, like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, while less known nationally, could draw on a deeper well of support in their home states and regions. Kelly and Shapiro are viewed among the front-runners, according to people familiar with the process, after the Harris campaign began its vetting with about a dozen names.
Harris said Tuesday she had not yet decided on her No. 2. But she, and whomever she selects, will head out on a seven-state swing of key battlegrounds, including Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina, next week.
Of the four potential Democratic vice-presidential candidates included in the poll – Kelly, Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, who publicly removed himself from consideration after the poll was fielded — Kelly has the highest name recognition and favorability, according to the AP-NORC poll.
Americans are more likely to have a positive view of Kelly than a negative view. About 3 in 10 U.S. adults have a very or somewhat favorable view of Kelly, while about 2 in 10 have a negative view. Drawing more good feelings than bad is a relative rarity in presidential politics these days: Biden and former President Donald Trump have been viewed more negatively than positively for several years now.
Like many of the other contenders, though, Kelly is nowhere near a household name. About half of Americans don’t know enough to have an opinion about him.
But Democrats are especially likely to have warm feelings about Kelly. Forty-five percent have a favorable view of Kelly. Only about 1 in 10 have an unfavorable view of him, and around 4 in 10 don’t know enough to say. Older Democrats — those 45 and older — are especially likely to have a positive view of Kelly, while younger Democrats are more likely to be unfamiliar with him.
He’s proven to be a battle-tested campaigner, winning a special election in 2020 to flip the Arizona Senate seat from Republican control and then retaining it two years later for a full, six-year term. The Navy veteran is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and has been an influential voice among Democrats on immigration and border security, long a political vulnerability for Harris that Republicans are seeking to exploit.
Shapiro is broadly unknown to Americans and Democrats, except in the Northeast, where he has more name recognition and higher favorability. The poll found that 6 in 10 U.S. adults — including 57% of Democrats — don’t know enough to have an opinion about Shapiro. About 2 in 10 Americans view him favorably, and a similar share view him unfavorably.
The picture isn’t very different among Democrats. About one-quarter of Democrats have a positive view of Shapiro, while 16% have a negative view. Older Democrats are more likely than younger ones to have a favorable opinion of Shapiro, but overall, most have yet to develop a view.
Shapiro was elected governor in 2022, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano — a controversial figure who drew opposition and criticism from members of his own party, including then-GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.
Unlike the other contenders asked about in the AP-NORC poll, though, he’s significantly better known — and liked — in his home region. In the Northeast, 4 in 10 U.S. adults have a favorable view of him. Another 4 in 10, roughly, don’t know enough to have an opinion of him, while about 2 in 10 Northeasterners view him negatively.
Democrat Gary Hines, a 68-year-old in Philadelphia, had high praise for his home-state governor and added: “I’d hate to see him leave, because he’s just getting started in Pennsylvania.”
If chosen, Beshear would need to introduce himself to most of the country. Around 7 in 10 Americans don’t know enough to have an opinion about him. Those with a view are about evenly split: 17% of U.S. adults have a positive view, and 15% have a negative one.
However, Democrats have a more positive than negative opinion of Beshear. About one-quarter have a very or somewhat favorable view, while around 1 in 10 have a negative view. Nearly two-thirds don’t know enough about Beshear to give an opinion.
The scion of a well-known Democratic family in the state, Beshear defeated then-Gov. Matt Bevin — a deeply unpopular figure, even in conservative Kentucky — then won reelection in 2023 against Republican Daniel Cameron, a longtime protégé of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Beshear’s victory last year was credited in part to his advocacy of abortion rights, including a campaign ad that featured a sexual assault survivor attacking Cameron for his stances.
Like the other governors who are being discussed, Gov. Tim Walz doesn’t have much of a national profile — and that also means he’s a relatively blank slate. He wasn’t included in the AP-NORC poll, but a new ABC News/Ipsos poll, which asked about favorability slightly differently, found that about 9 in 10 U.S. adults don’t know enough to have an opinion on him. Among Americans with a view, opinions are split between positive and negative.
Walz, who also served for 12 years in the House, moved up on Harris’ shortlist in recent days after he coined “weird” as a new talking point to describe the Republican ticket. It’s a line now used widely by the vice president and other Democrats.
He currently leads the Democratic Governors Association.
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The poll of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
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AP White House Correspondent Zeke Miller contributed to this report.
