Race for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District Democratic Primary remains tight

Jul 10, 2024, 4:15 AM

Arizona Congressional District 1 Democratic primary debate recap...

The six Democrats want to win the Arizona primary election on July 30. (Arizona Clean Elections screenshot/via YouTube)

(Arizona Clean Elections screenshot/via YouTube)

PHOENIX — The Democratic primary for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District (AZCD01) remains competitive, according to a poll released by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) on Tuesday.

Conducted from June 25-27, NPI surveyed 420 Arizona Congressional District 1 likely Democratic primary voters, yielding a margin of error of 4.78%.

Who are the leading candidates?

The leading candidates, Andrei Cherny and Amish Shah, each sit at just 16% support. Marlene Galán-Woods is at 14% while Conor O’Callaghan is at 11%.

However, 35% of voters remain undecided.

“This race is a mess, and that’s not a surprise,” David Byler, NPI chief of research, said. “National politics has sucked all of the air out of the room. None of these candidates are particularly well-known. And on the Democratic side of the aisle, there’s no single issue that focuses and divides up primaries. Many Democrats haven’t tuned in, and those who have are split and unsure.”

Cherny has a net favorability at +43, while Shah, the other leading candidate, has a +34 net favorability rating. Galán-Woods has a 41% favorability rating but also faces a name recognition issue with 32% of respondents having never heard of her.

Which candidates does each age group favor?

All candidates show stronger favorability ratings among older voters, particularly in the 65-74 age group. On the other hand, the 18-54 age group consistently shows lower favorability ratings and more “never heard of” responses, prompting an opportunity for candidates to focus on and earn the votes of the younger age group.

“It’s interesting that this close to Election Day, no candidate has reached at least 20% support,” said Mike Noble, NPI founder & CEO. “Democrats might be a little rusty in their campaigning having had no competitive primaries in a long time and since Arizona has become a battleground.”

The primary election is scheduled for July 30, and these candidates have just a few weeks to win the hearts of Arizona residents before they hit the polls.

Voters will choose which Democrat they want to run against Republican Rep. David Schweikert — who currently fills the seat and seeks reelection — in the primary election on July 30.

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Race for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District Democratic Primary remains tight