Arizona gas prices expected to fall below $4 on average by next week

PHOENIX – Gas prices have been falling faster in Arizona than almost anywhere else in the United States and could dip below $4 by next week.

The statewide average for a gallon of regular gas was $4.19 on Monday, according to AAA, 13.3 cents lower than a week earlier and 45.6 cents cheaper than a month ago.

Arizona’s weekly and monthly declines each rank third nationally.

Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service said the downward trend is expected to continue.

“I think you’re going below $4 by Halloween or soon thereafter,” Kloza told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Monday morning, eight days before the holiday.

Pretty sharp drops for gasoline across the country today: Down 3.5cts/gal to as much as 9cts/gal East of the Rockies; Down 3.5cts/gal to 4.5cts/gal in western geography. Glacial pace of decreases at the pump may quicken soon.

— Tom Kloza (@TomKloza) October 23, 2023

What states have the most expensive gas?

Despite the fast fall, Arizona still lags well behind the national average of $3.55 while ranking seventh on the list of most expensive states for gas.

California leads the way at $5.44 per gallon of regular gas, 65 cents higher than No. 2 Washington.

Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon and Alaska also have higher gas prices than Arizona, according to AAA.

Is the Israel-Hamas war impacting gas prices?

Kloza said the ongoing war in the Middle East hasn’t made gas more expensive because wholesale prices dropped steeply before Hamas bombed Israel on Oct. 7.

“It’s going to be strange,” he said. “People are going to be looking at lower gas prices even while conflagration is screaming in the Middle East.

“Refiners aren’t making money on gasoline anymore — they’re making a lot on diesel and jet fuel — and the consumers are going to be the beneficiary of kind of a very sloppy market in the next few months.”

How long can Arizonans expect relief at the pump?

Kloza said gas costs are cyclical and typically drop this time of year, so the downward trend during the cooler months will likely be followed by an upswing next year.

“In the spring you have to start the cycle once again, so don’t get too used to it,” he said.

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Jim Cross contributed to this report.

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