Polls show tight Arizona races for governor, senator as Election Day nears

PHOENIX – With the general election horse race coming down the home stretch, Arizona’s top two contests are shaping up to be photo finishes.

The latest polling shows Republican Blake Masters chipping away at incumbent Mark Kelly’s lead in the U.S. Senate race and GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake holding her narrow edge over Democrat Katie Hobbs.

OH Predictive Insights released new results Monday from polling conducted last week. The Phoenix-based research firm found Kelly and Lake each leading by 2 percentage points, within the margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

🚨New OHPI data🚨

U.S. Senate Race

Mark Kelly: 48%
Blake Masters: 46%
Marc Victor: 3%
Undecided: 3%

Full release: https://t.co/lcnRoCotgm

— OHPI (@OHPredictive) October 31, 2022

Those results were similar to the latest aggregate averages from multiple pollsters compiled by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics.

As of Monday morning, FiveThirtyEight’s averages showed Kelly’s lead at 3.3 points and Lake’s at 2.7. RealClearPolitics had Kelly up by 2.4 points and Lake up 3.8 points.

While the governor’s race has been tight since the primaries, Kelly’s once formidable lead has dwindled. The Democratic incumbent headed into October up by 6.9 points in the FiveThirtyEight average and 4 points in the RealClearPolitics average.

As part of last week’s survey, OH Predictive Insights asked likely voters about when they were planning to cast their ballots. About 80% said they would do it before Election Day, with Republicans much more likely to wait until Nov. 8.

“Based on this expected voter behavior, you can expect the first numbers posted on election night to favor Democrats,” Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights chief of research, said in a press release. “However, as the day-of votes get counted, you’ll see Republicans quickly catching up.

“Sit back and buckle in because it’ll be a wild ride as the votes get counted.”

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