Incumbent Mark Kelly has wide lead over Blake Masters in Senate race poll

Sep 21, 2022, 8:24 AM | Updated: 1:00 pm

PHOENIX – With three weeks to go before early voting starts, a poll of likely Arizona voters showed incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly with a double-digit lead over GOP challenger Blake Masters.

Kelly was out front 47%-35% in OH Predictive Insights’ poll published Wednesday. Libertarian candidate Marc Victor brought up the rear at 6%, while 12% were undecided.

The Democrat pulled in 86% of his party’s voters, won over independents 43%-28% and captured 20% of Republicans.

Masters garnered the support of 65% of Republicans.

The poll was conducted Sept. 6-9 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.83%.

“Kelly is not above that all-important 50-point threshold, but he’s hovering very close to it. And Blake Masters seems to really be struggling to get traction in this race,” Mike Noble, OHPI chief researcher, told KTAR News 92.3 FM.

Kelly bested Masters 47%-39% in Maricopa County, 45%-28% in rural counties and 63%-19% among voters ages 18-34.

Masters, however, was the choice among older voters: ages 45-54 picked him 44%-32%, and 65 and older 48%-39%.

“Mark Kelly is performing fairly well, given that it’s a tougher Democratic election year, and he’s doing well with certain key demographic groups like Hispanic and independent voters, who are very key in general election contests,” Noble said.

But Kelly “shouldn’t count his chicken before they hatch,” he said.

Early voting for the Nov. 8 general election starts Oct. 12.

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Incumbent Mark Kelly has wide lead over Blake Masters in Senate race poll