US, Western Europe fret over uncertain Ukraine war endgame

May 10, 2022, 9:29 PM | Updated: May 11, 2022, 5:59 pm

Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow, on April 26, 2022, and Ukrainian Preside...

Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow, on April 26, 2022, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 8, 2022. An interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That's what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side, and no resolution in sight. (AP Photo)

(AP Photo)

WASHINGTON (AP) — An interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That’s what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side and no resolution in sight.

The possibility of a stalemate is fueling concerns that Ukraine may remain a deadly European battlefield and a source of continental and global instability for months, or even years, to come.

Energy and food security are the most immediate worries, but massive Western support for Ukraine while the world is still emerging from coronavirus pandemic and struggling to deal with the effects of climate change could deepen the toll on the global economy. And should Russia choose to escalate, the risk of a broader conflict rises.

The U.S. and its allies are pumping a steady stream of lethal weaponry into Ukraine to keep it in the fight. While most analysts say Kyiv is holding its own at the least, those infusions must continue if they are to support President Volodomyr Zelenskyy’s vow to win, or at least continue to match or beat back, Moscow’s advances.

Just as Russian President Vladimir Putin has not signaled a willingness to intensify the invasion with either a general mobilization of troops or the use of unconventional arms, neither has he shown any sign of backing down. Nor has Zelenskyy, who is now asserting that Ukraine will not only beat back the current Russian invasion but regain control of Crimea and other areas that Russia has occupied or otherwise controlled since 2014.

“It’s very difficult to see how you could get a negotiated solution at this point,” said Ian Kelly, a retired veteran diplomat who served as U.S. ambassador to Georgia, another former Soviet republic on which Russia has territorial designs. He added, “Neither side is willing to stop fighting and probably the likeliest outcome is a war that lasts a couple of years. Ukraine would be a festering sore in the middle of Europe.”

“There’s no way that Ukraine is going to step back,” Kelly said. “They think they’re gonna win.”

At the same time, Kelly said that no matter how many miscalculations Putin has made about the strength and will of Ukraine to resist or the unity and resolve of the NATO allies, Putin cannot accept defeat or anything short of a scenario that he can claim has achieved success.

“It would be political suicide for Putin to withdraw,” Kelly said.

U.S. officials, starting with President Joe Biden, seem to agree, even after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin raised eyebrows by saying after a visit to Kyiv last month that Washington’s goal is not only to help Ukraine defend itself but to “weaken” Russia to the point where it does not pose a threat.

Putin “doesn’t have a way out right now, and I’m trying to figure out what we do about that,” Biden said on Monday even after he signed legislation designed to reboot the World War II-era “lend-lease” program and appealed to Congress to approve a $40 billion package of military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.

So what to do? French President Emmanuel Macron has placed a premium on a negotiated settlement that saves face for both Russia and Ukraine.

“We will have a peace to build tomorrow, let us never forget that,” Macron said on Monday. “We will have to do this with Ukraine and Russia around the table. The end of the discussion and the negotiation will be set by Ukraine and Russia. But it will not be done in denial, nor in exclusion of each other, nor even in humiliation.”

U.S. officials aren’t so sure, although they allow that the endgame is up to Ukraine.

“Our strategy is to see to it that Ukraine emerges from this victorious,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said this week. “Ukraine will do so at the negotiating table. Our goal is to strengthen Ukraine’s position at that negotiating table as we continue to place mounting costs on the Russian Federation.”

But, the high-stakes uncertainty over what constitutes a “victorious” Ukraine has alarmed officials in some European capitals, notably those in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which are NATO members bordering Russia and especially worried about Moscow’s possible future intentions.

For Baltic nations and other countries on NATO’s eastern flank, the threat is real and memories of Soviet occupation and rule remain fresh. Concessions to Russia in Ukraine will only embolden Putin to push further west, they say.

“To be honest, we are still not talking about the endgame,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis lamented to the The Associated Press in an interview on Monday. He said any territorial concessions in Ukraine would usher in a world where the “rules-based order” has been replaced by a “jungle rules-based order.”

Landsbergis suggested that Western nations issue public statements about what success would be. “Where we would consider what we would take for victory, actual victory? What would be the scenario that we would like?”

Landsbergis has been outspoken in calls for Putin to be ousted as Russia’s leader, going well beyond the U.S. position and that of other NATO leaders. He says regime change in Moscow is the only way to protect European and Western security in the long term.

“Coming from me it’s much easier to say we need regime change in Russia, so we’ve been quite blunt and open about it,” he said. “Maybe for United States it’s much more much more difficult to be open about it, but still, at some point we have to talk about this because it’s so important.”

Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


              FILE - Teenagers on bicycles pass a bridge destroyed by shelling near Orihiv, Ukraine, May 5, 2022. An interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That's what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side, and no resolution in sight. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)
            
              FILE - Local residents close the windows of an apartment building with plywood after Russian shelling in Dobropillya, Donetsk region, in eastern Ukraine, April 30, 2022. An interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That's what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side, and no resolution in sight. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)
            
              FILE - A fragment of a Tochka-U missile lies on the ground following an attack at the railway station in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, April 8, 2022. An interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That's what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side, and no resolution in sight. (AP Photo/Andriy Andriyenko, File)
            
              FILE - Ukrainian soldiers examine Russian multiple missiles abandoned by Russian troops, in the village of Berezivka, Ukraine, April 21, 2022. An interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That's what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side, and no resolution in sight. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)
            
              FILE - German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, center, and Ukrainian Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova talk as they stand near a mass grave in Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 10, 2022. An interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That’s what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side, and no resolution in sight. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
            
              Maksym, 3, is photographed with his brother, Dmytro, 16, on top of a destroyed Russian tank, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, May 8, 2022. An interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That's what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side, and no resolution in sight. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)
            
              FILE - Ukrainian servicemen study a Sweden shoulder-launched weapon system Carl Gustaf M4 during a training session on the near Kharkiv, Ukraine, April 7, 2022. An interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That's what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side, and no resolution in sight. (AP Photo/Andrew Marienko, File)
            
              FILE - Relatives attend the funeral of Illya Shklyaruk, 25, an Irpin citizen involved in evacuations of his neighbors from the town and killed inside his car by a gun shot by Russian Army on March 8, at the cemetery of Irpin, Ukraine, on April 25, 2022. An interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That’s what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side, and no resolution in sight.(AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)
            
              FILE - The mother of Oleksandr Mozheiko, 31, an Irpin Territorial Defense soldier killed by Russian army, cries at his grave at the cemetery of Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv, on May 1, 2022. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)
            
              FILE - Destroyed houses are photographed in Irpin, Ukraine, April 30, 2022. An interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That's what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side, and no resolution in sight. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)
            
              Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow, on April 26, 2022, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 8, 2022. An interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That's what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side, and no resolution in sight. (AP Photo)
            Helena walks inside the basement of a residential building during a Russian attack in Lyman, Ukraine, Tuesday, April 26, 2022. TAn interminable and unwinnable war in Europe? That's what NATO leaders fear and are bracing for as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds into its third month with little sign of a decisive military victory for either side, and no resolution in sight. (AP Photo/Leo Correa, File)

AP

(Mike Stocker/South Florida Sun-Sentinel via AP)Credit: ASSOCIATED PRESS...

Associated Press

Florida police search for 3 gunmen who wounded 9 at crowded beach on Memorial Day

Police are responding to a shooting near the beach broadwalk in Hollywood, Florida.

2 days ago

Crew members assemble the main stage ahead of the 2023 Scripps Nations Spelling Bee on Sunday, May ...

Associated Press

Exclusive secrets of the National Spelling Bee: Picking the words to identify a champion

As the final pre-competition meeting of the Scripps National Spelling Bee's word selection panel stretches into its seventh hour, the pronouncers no longer seem to care.

2 days ago

FILE - Gabby Petito's mother Nichole Schmidt, wipes a tear from her face during a news conference o...

Associated Press

Mother of man who killed Gabby Petito said in letter she would help son ‘dispose of a body’

The mother of the man who killed Gabby Petito told her son in an undated letter that she would “dispose of a body” if needed because she loved him so much, according to copies of the note shared publicly for the first time this week by attorneys for Petito's parents.

5 days ago

A member of the 3rd U.S. Infantry Regiment, also known as The Old Guard, places flags in front of e...

Associated Press

5 things to know about Memorial Day including its controversies

Memorial Day is supposed to be about mourning the nation’s fallen service members, but it’s come to anchor the unofficial start of summer and a long weekend of discounts on anything from mattresses to lawn mowers.

5 days ago

FILE - This artist sketch depicts the trial of Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes, left, as he test...

Associated Press

Officers describe chaos, fear on Jan. 6 as judge weighs prison time for Oath Keepers’ Rhodes

Police officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and public servants who fled the mob's attack told a judge on Wednesday that they are still haunted by what they endured, as the judge prepares to hand down sentences in a landmark Capitol riot case.

6 days ago

Pride month merchandise is displayed at the front of a Target store in Hackensack, N.J., Wednesday,...

Associated Press

Target on the defensive after removing LGBTQ+-themed products

Target once distinguished itself as being boldly supportive of the LGBTQ+ community.

7 days ago

Sponsored Articles

...

OCD & Anxiety Treatment Center

5 mental health myths you didn’t know were made up

Helping individuals understand mental health diagnoses like obsessive compulsive spectrum disorder or generalized anxiety disorder isn’t always an easy undertaking. After all, our society tends to spread misconceptions about mental health like wildfire. This is why being mindful about how we talk about mental health is so important. We can either perpetuate misinformation about already […]

...

re:vitalize

Why drug-free weight loss still matters

Wanting to lose weight is a common goal for many people as they progress throughout life, but choosing between a holistic approach or to take medicine can be a tough decision.

(Photo by Michael Matthey/picture alliance via Getty Images)...

Cox Communications

Valley Boys & Girls Club uses esports to help kids make healthy choices

KTAR’s Community Spotlight focuses on the Boys & Girls Club of the Valley and the work to incorporate esports into children's lives.

US, Western Europe fret over uncertain Ukraine war endgame