Retreat of omicron COVID wave doesn’t mean pandemic is over, Arizona expert says

PHOENIX – The COVID-19 wave fueled by the highly contagious omicron variant may be subsiding, but the pandemic isn’t over, according to Arizona’s top pandemic adviser.

Today's #COVID19 dashboard update adds 9,077 cases and 100 deaths. #MaskUp in public indoor spaces to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Stay informed with our updated mask webpage at https://t.co/8fakdRX0Jf. pic.twitter.com/QwxTygymey

— AZ Dept of Health (@AZDHS) February 4, 2022

“Things are looking a little better, but I don’t want to give anybody a sense of complacency,” Dr. Richard Carmona, the former U.S. surgeon general hired to advise Gov. Doug Ducey and the Arizona Department of Health Services on the state’s public health emergency policies, told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s the Mike Broomhead Show on Thursday.

“We’re still in the midst of a pandemic. We have about 1.9 million cases in Arizona thus far and about 26,500 deaths.”

The positivity rate for diagnostic testing and the numbers of newly reported COVID cases and hospital inpatients with the virus have been trending lower, but ICU cases and deaths have yet to see sustained declines.

“The important thing is that we don’t want people to let their guard down,” Carmona said. “They should still be getting vaccinated, washing their hands, masking where appropriate.”

Carmona said vaccines are the key to moving COVID from pandemic to endemic status.

“Clearly we’re still in a pandemic now,” he said. “Endemic would mean that the virus is in the environment but essentially has no place to go because all the people have been vaccinated, or vaccinated plus they’ve been infected and have some immunity.

“So we’re not there yet because still about a third of our population is not vaccinated.”

And the longer it takes to reach herd immunity, the more chances the virus will have to mutate, Carmona said. That creates uncertainty.

“It’s hard to predict what the next variant would be,” he said. “It could be more lethal, it could be more transmissible, or it could be such that it develops protections against vaccine, which forces us to even start again.

“So we don’t know that, but that’s why it’s important that we accelerate herd immunity — that meaning that we accelerate getting as many people vaccinated as possible.”

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Here’s the latest data on the pandemic in Arizona (hospital, case, death, testing and vaccination statistics are based on Friday morning’s update of the Arizona Department of Health Services COVID-19 dashboard; seven-day averages are based on tracking by The New York Times):

COVID-19 cases

• Documented pandemic total – 1,903,412
• Daily new reports – Friday: 9,077; One day earlier: 7,794; One week earlier: 15,610; Pandemic high: 27,681 (Jan. 22, 2022)
• Seven-day average – Thursday: 11,506; One day earlier: 12,434; One week earlier: 18,554; Pandemic high: 20,778 (Jan. 24, 2022)

COVID-19 deaths

• Documented pandemic total – 26,530
• Daily new reports – Friday: 100; One day earlier: 61; One week earlier: 69; Pandemic high: 335 (Jan. 12, 2021)
• Seven-day average – Thursday: 76; One day earlier: 93; One week earlier: 72; Pandemic high: 175 (Jan. 13, 2021)

COVID-19 hospitalizations

• COVID inpatients – Thursday: 3,064; One day earlier: 3,151; One week earlier: 3,559; Pandemic high: 5,082 (Jan. 11, 2021)
• COVID ICU patients – Thursday: 632; One day earlier: 635; One week earlier: 636; Pandemic high: 1,183 (Jan. 11, 2021)

Statewide hospital capacity

• Inpatients beds available – Thursday: 526 (6% of capacity); One day earlier: 475 (5%); One week earlier: 405 (5%)
• Percentage of inpatient beds with COVID patients – Thursday: 35%; One day earlier: 36%; One week earlier: 41%
• ICU beds available – Thursday: 117 (7% of capacity); One day earlier: 119 (7%); One week earlier: 92 (6%)
• Percentage of ICU beds with COVID patients – Thursday: 38%; One day earlier: 39%; One week earlier: 39%

Laboratory diagnostic testing

• Weekly percent positivity – Samples taken this week: 24%; Last week: 29%; Two weeks ago: 34%; Pandemic high (for a full week): 34% (Jan. 16-22, 2022)
• Find a testing site: ADHS (statewide)

Find a vaccine site

• ADHS (statewide); Maricopa County Public Health (metro Phoenix)

Additional details

The ADHS daily case and death updates can cover multiple days of reporting because of data processing procedures and aren’t meant to represent the actual activity over the previous 24 hours. The hospitalization numbers posted each morning are reported electronically the previous evening by hospitals across the state.

The actual caseload is likely higher than officially reported because ADHS data is based mainly on electronic laboratory reporting and doesn’t include results from home kits unless individuals report them to their health care providers.

Vaccines have proven to reduce the likelihood of a COVID infection causing serious illness or death, even with the highly contagious omicron variant. Booster shots provide additional protection and are approved for individuals who received their second Pfizer (ages 12 and up only) or Moderna doses at least five months ago or the Johnson & Johnson shot at least two months ago.

The minimum age for vaccination is 5 for Pfizer and 18 for Moderna or Johnson & Johnson.

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