Poll finds Matt Salmon gaining on Kari Lake in GOP race for Arizona governor

PHOENIX – A new poll of Arizona voters showed the Republican primary race for governor was getting closer, with front-runner Kari Lake’s lead over Matt Salmon dropping to single digits.

The OH Predictive Insights survey released Thursday put Lake ahead 21%-17%. Karrin Taylor Robson was at 6%. State Treasurer Kimberly Yee, who dropped out of the race shortly after the poll was conducted, and businessman Steve Gaynor each had 5%.

In a November poll by the Phoenix researchers, the former TV news anchor led the retired U.S. congressman 28%-11%.

“Support for Lake has seen no meaningful statistical growth since September,” Mike Noble, chief researcher for OH Predictive Insights, told KTAR News 92.3 FM.

“Matt Salmon is hot on her heels,” he said, adding that Taylor Robson’s healthy campaign finances gives her the means to make a splash with ads before the Aug. 2 vote.

Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs continued to lead the Democratic primary at 46%. Former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez had 9% and onetime state Rep. Aaron Lieberman was at 5%.

Hobbs’ share improved from the previous poll, up 4 percentage points.

“Her polling numbers appear to be unaffected by the discrimination debacle,” Noble said, referring to a lawsuit involving the 2015 firing of a woman from her job as an adviser to state Senate Democrats.

Hobbs was not named as a defendant in the lawsuit, which cited race and general discrimination, but she was the chamber’s party leader at the time and was active in the decision to fire Talonya Adams.

More than half of the Democrats who participated in the poll – 52% – were unaware of the lawsuit.

The opt-in poll of 855 was conducted Jan. 11-13 and has a margin of error of 3.4%.

Of the total voters, 302 were Republicans, 279 were independents and 274 were Democrats.

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