Polls show Dems leading in tight Arizona races for Senate, president

Nov 2, 2020, 11:26 AM | Updated: 3:00 pm
Democratic candidates Mark Kelly, left, and Joe Biden. (Getty Images Photos)...
Democratic candidates Mark Kelly, left, and Joe Biden. (Getty Images Photos)
(Getty Images Photos)

PHOENIX – One day before the election, polls showed the Democratic challengers leading in Arizona’s presidential and U.S. Senate races, as has been the case for much of the campaign.

Joe Biden’s edge over President Donald Trump was slim, but Mark Kelly’s lead over Sen. Martha McSally appeared to be a bit more secure.

That’s according to polling averages aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics.

As of Monday morning, FiveThirtyEight classified Biden as “slightly favored” to become the first Democrat to win an Arizona presidential election since Bill Clinton in 1996. The site said Biden had a 2.9-point polling average lead, giving him about a 70 in 100 chance of winning the Grand Canyon State’s 11 electoral votes.

RealClearPolitics had Biden up by 1 point in Arizona through Sunday. Three days earlier, however, Trump had edged slightly ahead in the RCP average.

In national polling, RCP showed Biden up by 6.5 percentage points. FiveThirtyEight had Biden up by 8.4 points and gave him about an 89 in 100 chance of making Trump a one-term president.

In the special election for the seat McSally was appointed to following the death of Sen. John McCain, RCP showed Kelly leading by 5.8 points. FiveThirtyEight was projecting Kelly with a 78 in 100 chance of winning.

A Kelly victory would give Arizona two Democratic senators for the first time since January 1953.

Whoever claims the Senate seat will be up for reelection in 2022, the end of McCain’s final term.

One local pollster released new results Monday morning and showed the races to be tighter than the averages, though the Democrats were clinging to leads.

Phoenix-based Data Orbital’s poll, conducted Oct. 28-30, showed Kelly’s lead shrinking to 1.1 point and Biden’s at just .4 points, both well within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.18%.

Data Orbital showed the Republicans closing strong. Two weeks earlier, the research firm showed Kelly up by 6.1 points and Biden up 5.3 points.

“If turnout trends continue to hold as they are and Sen. McSally continues to minimize Republican cross voting, she has a real chance of winning reelection,” Data Orbital President George Khalef said in a press release.

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Polls show Dems leading in tight Arizona races for Senate, president