Biden, Kelly hold onto leads in Arizona poll of likely voters

PHOENIX – One week before Election Day, a poll of likely Arizona voters showed Democrats Joe Biden and Mark Kelly maintaining leads against Republican incumbents President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Martha McSally.

Former Vice President Biden led Trump, 49%-46%, while Kelly was ahead of McSally, 50%-45% in the OH Predictive Insights’ final survey of the election cycle released Tuesday.

The gap between Biden and Trump closed from an Oct. 15 poll when the margin was 49%-45%. That same poll had Kelly leading McSally, 50%-45%, which reflected a 5-point swing in her favor from a September poll.

The Phoenix researchers said that 6 of 10 participants had already voted and Democrats outpaced Republicans.

“Republicans are putting their faith in good weather and short lines Tuesday,” OHPI chief of research Mike Noble said in a press release. “Something as simple as a light drizzle may cost the GOP crucial votes in an already close race.”

The latest phone poll of 716 was conducted Oct. 22-25.

Arizona has traditionally leaned Republican but is viewed as a battleground state this year. The McSally-Kelly race is a key prize in the battle for control of the Senate.

The survey included presidential Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen for a second time. She was the choice for 3% of the participants.

Poll aggregate site FiveThirtyEight.com‘s Tuesday numbers indicated that Biden was “slightly favored” to win the Grand Canyon State. Kelly also was favored to win, but by a wider difference.

The site gave Biden an 88 in 100 chance of winning the White House and Kelly a 78 in 100 chance in capturing his race.

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