Mark Kelly doubles lead on Martha McSally in Senate race poll

PHOENIX – Democratic challenger Mark Kelly has opened a double-figure lead over incumbent Sen. Martha McSally in a poll of likely Arizona voters released Wednesday.

OH Predictive Insights’ survey of 600 found political newcomer Kelly up 52%-42%, twice the gap from a previous poll.

In a poll conducted in August, McSally had whittled the deficit to 48%-43%. She has trailed in the Phoenix-based company’s polling all year, behind by as many 13 percentage points in May.

In the latest survey, conducted Sept. 8-10, Kelly made inroads with independents, pulling in 55% of their support to McSally’s 35%. He also was the choice of 15% of Republicans while McSally garnered 6% of Democrats.

OH Predictive Insights researcher Jacob Joss told KTAR News 92.3 FM Kelly’s number with registered Republicans was “worrying” for McSally.

But he also pointed toward GOP spending on the race. “If these national groups thought McSally was a lost cause, they would be cutting bait, not investing millions of more dollars in ads.”

Breaking down the poll participants, there were 237 Republicans, 206 Democrats and 157 independents.

The largest age group was 18-54 at 330. Those 55 and older totaled 270.

The phone poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4%.

According to poll aggregating website FiveThirtyEight.com, Kelly has led in every poll published this month, with his advantage ranging from 3% to 17%.

KTAR News 923. FM’s Jeremy Foster contributed to this report.

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