Poll has Trump, Biden even among likely Arizona voters in 2020
PHOENIX – Arizona voters would be split down the middle if President Donald Trump were to face former Vice President Joe Biden in the 2020 general election, according to a poll released Wednesday.
OH Predictive Insights’ survey showed each man had 46 percent of the votes in a presidential match-up between the incumbent Republican and the Democrat. Biden is not among the 10 from his party so far who have declared their candidacies.
The poll of 600 likely voters were asked, “If the U.S. Presidential race was held today, which of the following candidates, listed in random order, would you be most likely to vote for?”
Trump pulled in 82 percent of the Republican votes, while Biden had 87 percent of the Democratic votes.
Independents were nearly as close in the split – 44 percent favored Biden to 41 percent for Trump.
“If you’re a Trump supporter, the poll is affirming,” political consultant Stan Barnes of Phoenix told KTAR News 92.3 FM.
“Even Joe Biden … only gets to basically a tie with the controversial president.”
Breaking down the numbers, 96 percent of the Republicans described themselves as very conservative, while 94 percent of the Democrats said they were somewhat liberal.
Biden took the 54 and younger group 48 percent to 43 percent, while Trump captured 55 and older, 48 percent to 45 percent.
Trump fared better against the rest of the Democratic field in the phone poll conducted Feb. 12-13.
He easily topped Sen. Bernie Sanders, who announced his intentions to run again Tuesday, 49 percent to 37 percent; Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 49 percent to 38 percent.
Only Sen. Kamala Harris managed a single-digit deficit, 49 percent for 40 percent.
The pool of likely voters was divided evenly between men and women and 40 percent were Republicans, 33 percent Democrats and 27 percent independent.
The biggest group was 65 and older at 35 percent followed by 55 to 64 at 21 percent. Only 12 percent were 18 to 34.
The poll’s margin of error was 4 percent.
KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Jeremy Foster contributed to this report.