Arizona would gain one House seat in 2020 based on 2018 census data
PHOENIX — Arizona would gain one seat in the House of Representatives if 2018 census data were used for apportioning congressional seats today, according to a political consulting firm.
The 435 seats in the House are reapportioned every 10 years based states’ population size, with the most populous states getting the largest share of seats.
The next reapportionment will occur in 2020.
Election Data Services said in a press release Wednesday that projections for census data in 2020 show a possibility for even greater change.
Based on 2018 data, 13 states’ congressional delegations would be impacted, but by 2020 three additional states are expected to be affected.
Along with Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon are projected to gain a single seat.
Florida is expected to gain two seats, while Texas may gain two or three.
Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia are expected to lose one seat.
New York is projected to lose two seats.
According to 2018 census data, Arizona is the fourth-fastest growing state.
The firm noted that while Nevada, Idaho and Utah are growing more quickly, they are not likely to gain enough people by 2020 to gain a seat.
Kimball Brace, the firm’s president, said in the release that these projections are “very preliminary,” though, and may change by 2020.
“The change in administration, the lack of a census director, shortness of funds appropriated to the (Census) Bureau, and how well individual states conduct their own Complete Count campaigns could have a profound impact on how well the 2020 census is conducted, and therefore the counts that are available for apportionment,” he said.