Election weekend poll shows McSally leading Sinema by 1 point
Nov 5, 2018, 5:54 AM | Updated: 3:13 pm
(AP Photos)
(AP Photos)
PHOENIX — Arizona’s race for the state’s first female senator seems to only get closer and closer.
The latest OH Predictive Insight/ABC15 poll showed Republican Senate hopeful Martha McSally leading Democratic opponent Kyrsten Sinema, 49 percent to 48 percent.
Just 3 percent of the 631 respondents said they were undecided.
The survey was conducted Nov. 2-3 and had a 3.9 percent margin of error.
Arizona Senate:
Martha McSally (R) 49% (+1)
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 48%@OHPredictive/@abc15 11/2-3https://t.co/n7DFZXd1ER #AZsen pic.twitter.com/g0jfIwMWHL— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 5, 2018
Less than a week ago, an OH Predictive/ABC15 had McSally leading by seven percentage points. Since then, Green party candidate Angela Green dropped out of the race and endorsed Sinema.
Green had polled at 1 percent.
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“Arizona is seeing a historic midterm election turnout and Democratic voters are defying past historic early voting trends,” Mike Noble, managing partner of OH Predictive Insights, said in a news release.
“The race has tightened and it’s fitting that the winner will be decided based on who can best turn out out their voters on Election Day,” he said.
Noble told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Bruce St. James and Pamela Hughes on Monday that he believes McSally will lose the race if she cannot get rural voters to turn out for her.
“If not, I think we see Sinema there instead of McSally,” he said.
Since a poll on Oct. 22, the largest change was a surge in Democratic ballots in Pima County, according to the release.
OHPI found that 88 percent of Sinema supporters had turned in their ballots, while 70 percent of McSally’s had done so, meaning the race will largely be determined by Election Day turnout.
