Poll: Immigration tops education as No. 1 issue for Arizona voters

PHOENIX – Immigration has surpassed education as the top issue among Arizona voters, according to a new poll.

An OH Predictive Insights/ABC15 survey conducted Monday and Tuesday and released Friday showed that 37 percent of likely Arizona voters said immigration was the top issue in the state, with 25 percent more concerned about education.

That was a shift from the Phoenix-based research firm’s last poll on the topic, which showed education at 32 percent and immigration at 31 percent.

“This shows that politics is very dynamic, and with the current caravan issue you saw now immigration is the top issue,” Mike Noble, chief pollster for OH Predictive, told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Friday.

He added that it could mean the Red for Ed teacher movement is “starting to die down.”

Health care was third in the polling at 19 percent, up 5 points.

Those surveyed were asked if Arizona was heading in the right direction, and 49 percent said yes, an increase of 3 points. That was the highest it’s been all year, Noble said. The “no” responses remained steady at 38 percent.

The poll also showed a dip in President Donald Trump’s job approval in Arizona, from 55 percent to 54 percent. His disapproval rating ticked up from 44 percent to 46 percent.

“He came and did the rally here in Arizona and he actually went down 1 point and his negative went up only a few points … so it was a mixed bag for Trump coming to Arizona,” Noble said.

Voters were also asked if they’d sent in their ballots, and 59 percent said they had, with 29 percent planning to mail them. Twelve percent said they’d wait until Election Day on Nov. 6 to vote.

However, information released Thursday by Garrett Archer, data analyst for the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, said an estimated 35 percent of all votes had been returned.

.@SecretaryReagan #AZ early ballot update for 10/25: 761k in (est. 35% of all votes). Parties: GOP 44.2%, DEM 32.8%, OTH 22.5% (+11.4 R). Estimate for women increases to 49.7%. Median age drops to 56, mean drops to 56.5. https://t.co/OU4JNhQPf4

— The AZ Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) October 25, 2018

The OH Predictive poll of 600 likely Arizona voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Ali Vetnar contributed to this report.

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