ARIZONA NEWS

Postdebate poll shows Sinema leading McSally in Arizona’s Senate race

Oct 19, 2018, 11:56 AM | Updated: 3:21 pm
(AP Photos)...
(AP Photos)
(AP Photos)

PHOENIX – In the first new poll completed since the candidates’ only scheduled debate, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema maintained a lead over Republican Martha McSally in Arizona’s high-profile Senate race.

Using a model that represents an average surge, Phoenix-based pollster Data Orbital found that Sinema holds a 47 percent to 41 percent lead over her fellow U.S. congresswoman.

When the model accounted for a Democratic surge scenario, Sinema’s advantage expanded to 48 percent to 40 percent.

“Essentially our takeaway from this would be that turnout is going to matter an extreme amount in this race in terms of it coming down to the wire,” George Khalaf, Data Orbital president, told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Friday, when the poll was released.

The average surge model assumed a 9 percent ballot advantage for Republicans. The Democratic surge model gave the GOP a 5 percent advantage.

In the last midterm election, Republicans had a 13 percent edge in Arizona ballots.

Early voting began Oct. 10, and the election is Nov. 6.

“The way early ballot returns are going thus far, that (Democratic surge) scenario is becoming less and less likely,” Khalaf said.

The new poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

On Monday, Sinema and McSally sparred over the issues in their lone debate of the campaign.

Data Orbital last checked in on Arizona’s Senate race Sept. 4-6 and found Sinema holding a 46 percent to 42 percent lead.

Other pollsters have shown the race to be tighter or McSally ahead.

An OH Predictive Insights/ABC15 poll conducted Oct. 1-2 showed McSally with an advantage of 47 percent to 41 percent.

The seat, which is opening because Republican Jeff Flake didn’t seek re-election, is key to the Democrats’ hopes to gain control of the Senate.

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Ashley Flood contributed to this report.

Lifetime Windows & Doors

We want to hear from you.

Have a story idea or tip? Pass it along to the KTAR News team here.

Arizona News

(C|303 Rendering via JLL)...
Kevin Stone

Mile-long industrial park called called C|303 joining Glendale’s Loop 303 corridor

A mile-long industrial park is coming to Glendale as the build-out of the Loop 303 corridor continues, developers announced Wednesday.
1 day ago
(Tempe Police Department Photo/Facebook)...
KTAR.com

Arizona U.S. Marshals shoot man in Tempe who pulled out handgun

A shooting involving law enforcement occurred in Tempe on Thursday after a man pulled out a handgun, authorities said.
1 day ago
(ADOT picture)...
KTAR.com

Heavy rain hits part of Valley on Thursday, many left without power

Thursday started one of the strongest weather systems of the season as rain pounded and residents around the Valley are left without power.
1 day ago
FILE - A street sign leads to what was once the home of Paul Adams and his family on the outskirts ...
Associated Press

Judge limits privilege defense in Arizona religious sex abuse case

An Arizona judge overseeing a high-profile lawsuit accusing the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints of conspiring to cover-up child sex abuse has ruled that the church may not refuse to answer questions or turn over documents under the state’s “clergy-penitent privilege.”
1 day ago
Jose Avalos (Chandler Police Photo)...
KTAR.com

Silver Alert canceled for 57-year-old man with dementia found safe in Chandler

A Silver Alert was canceled on Thursday for a 57-year-old man with dementia who was found safe in Chandler.
1 day ago
Arizona Department of Public Safety photo...
KTAR.com

Arizona Department of Public Safety arrests man with 162 pounds of meth

The AZDPS made an arrest on Thursday after a traffic stop led to the discovery of 162 pounds of meth near Cordes Junction.
1 day ago

Sponsored Articles

...
Day & Night Air Conditioning, Heating and Plumbing

Ways to prevent clogged drains and what to do if you’re too late

While there are a variety of ways to prevent clogged drains, it's equally as important to know what to do when you're already too late.
...
CANVAS ANNUITY

Best retirement savings rates hit 4.30%

Maximize your retirement savings with guaranteed fixed rates up to 4.30%. Did you know there is a financial product that can give you great interest rates as you build your retirement savings and provide you with a paycheck for life once you retire? It might sound too good to be true but it is not; this product is called an annuity.
...
Carla Berg, MHS, Deputy Director, Public Health Services, Arizona Department of Health Services

Update your child’s vaccines before kindergarten

So, your little one starts kindergarten soon. How exciting! You still have a few months before the school year starts, so now’s the time to make sure students-to-be have the vaccines needed to stay safe as they head into a new chapter of life.
Postdebate poll shows Sinema leading McSally in Arizona’s Senate race