New poll shows Martha McSally with 6-point lead over Kyrsten Sinema

PHOENIX – According to one of the few polling firms that show Rep. Martha McSally ahead of Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, the Republican has expanded her lead.

A poll released Wednesday by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 showed McSally leading her Democratic opponent, 47 percent to 41 percent.

Eight percent of voters remained undecided, and 4 percent said Green Party candidate Angela Green was their choice.

A month ago, OH Predictive had McSally with a lead over Sinema of 49 percent to 46 percent.

According to statistical analysis website FiveThirtyEight.com, only one firm other than OH Predictive has shown McSally ahead. Sinema led in 11 polls conducted since the primaries.

“If you look at all of the polls, one thing we can all agree on is that this race is incredibly close, and I think it will be close, and that is why the Arizona Senate contest is the hottest race in the country,” Mike Noble, chief pollster for OH Predictive, told KTAR News 92.3 FM.

Noble said that despite extending her overall lead, McSally has been losing support among voters 55 and over. He attributed it to ads attacking McSally’s record on health care.

“You can see the negative is absolutely working and having effect,” he said.

Sinema had a 12-point advantage among independent voters, but that might not be enough to push her past McSally.

McSally had a big lead in the 35-44 age group, 59 percent to 35 percent, and a one-point edge among women.

The poll of 600 likely Arizona voters was conducted Oct. 1-2, in the middle of the bitter fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

But Valley political analyst Stan Barnes told Arizona’s Morning News on Wednesday that Sinema is the one who

“The only way Sinema can win statewide race for Senate is for everything to go right,” Barnes said. “Democrats have a distinct disadvantage in a general election in Arizona. Things are not going right for her right now.”

Among the problems Sinema is facing? “The Green Party candidate, who is on the ballot, is taking about 4 percent or so of the vote; that is coming directly out of the Sinema column. She needs every vote she can get to win.”

Earlier this week, OH Predictive released polls showing Republicans leading in four key statewide Arizona races: secretary of state, treasurer, attorney general and superintendent of public instruction.

The latest Arizona Senate poll from another Phoenix-based pollster, Data Orbital, showed Sinema leading McSally 46 percent to 42 percent. That was conducted Sept. 4-6.

The candidates will face off in a televised debate in Phoenix on Oct. 15.

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Mark Carlson contributed to this report.

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