McSally leads Sinema in 1 Arizona poll on Senate race, trails in another

PHOENIX — The Arizona Senate race between Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is so tight polls can’t even agree who’s leading.

An OH Predictive Insights/ABC15 phone survey released Wednesday put U.S. Rep. McSally ahead of U.S. Rep. Sinema, 49 percent to 46 percent, while a new Data Orbital poll had Sinema ahead, 46 percent to 42 percent.

Swing voters pushed McSally past Sinema in the OH poll of the general election; moderates made up nearly 34 percent of the Data Orbital phone survey.

“As we anticipated, this race is shaping up to be one to watch to the end,” Data Orbital president George Khalaf said in a statement.

Sinema led a hypothetical general election match-up poll from OH in August, 48 percent to 44 percent.

“It will be interesting to see if McSally is able to maintain her lead above Sinema in these next few weeks leading up to the all-important early voting,” OH chief pollster Mike Noble said in a statement.

The congresswomen each won their primary races by a wide margin.

After her victory, President Donald Trump endorsed McSally for the Nov. 6 election.

McSally made up ground in the OH poll in a particular group of the 597 participants.

“Older, educated women who regard themselves as more moderate will be the decisive voters this Senate cycle,” OHPI data analyst Noah Rudnick said in the press release.

That group, college-educated 55-to-64-year-olds, had been distancing themselves from Republicans.

Data Orbital conducted its poll of 550 likely voters Sept. 4-6, and had a margin of error. of plus-minus 4 percent. Researchers talked to 42.43 percent Republicans, 32.32 percent Democrats and 25/25 percent independents.

The margin of error for the OH poll, conducted Sept. 5-6 and had a similar margin of error.

Conservative political consultant Stan Barnes of Phoenix told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Arizona’s Morning News a recent ad attacking Sinema’s fitness for office was working in McSally’s favor.

“(Sinema) has got to answer the ad because unanswered means it may be true,” Barnes said, “and that disturbs voters.”

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