Independent groups have spent $6 million in Arizona’s Senate race

PHOENIX — Independent groups are pouring a lot of money into the U.S. Senate race in Arizona.

They’ve spent nearly $6 million so far, according to the Federal Election Commission.

Mike Noble, chief pollster with OH Predictive Insights, said that’s “a drop in the bucket” compared to the spending that’s yet to come from independent groups.

“Once we move into the general election, we’re going to see more money spent on this Senate contest than we’ve ever seen spent on a race in the history of Arizona,” he said.

Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, said it’s still too early to tell if the money spent by independent groups in the Senate race will be record-setting. But she is not ruling it out as a possibility.

“Much, if not most of the money, will be spent in the weeks and months leading up to the election in November,” she said.

Arizona’s Senate race is drawing a lot of attention because it’s an open seat. It’s also one of the few seats that could determine if Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate. Currently, the GOP has a 51 to 49 majority.

The largest amount spent by an independent group supporting a candidate has been more than $1 million from KelliPAC in support of former state Sen. Kelli Ward. At the same time, Defend Arizona has spent more than $1 million against Ward.

Congresswoman Martha McSally is also seeing a significant amount of money being spent against her. Priorities USA Action has spent about $637,000 to defeat her.

Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is mostly seeing independent groups spend money against him. The American Civil Liberties Union has spent the most, about $727,000.

Meanwhile, independent groups have not spent much money to oppose Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema. Instead, the New American Jobs Fund and Planned Parenthood have spent nearly $4 million in support of Sinema combined.

“She is probably one of the best recruits nationally for the Democrats,” Noble said about Sinema. “She has positioned herself well with not much of a competitive primary to speak of, compared to the Republicans who are battling it out as we’re seeing.”

Krumholz said so far Sinema has raised more money than any other candidate vying for the U.S. Senate seat in Arizona, with nearly $10 million. McSally comes in second with about $6.6 million raised, followed by Ward with about $2.6 million and Arpaio with more than $1.1 million.

She predicts independent groups will exceed those numbers “by a long shot” to try to shape the outcome, especially given the significance of the race.

“If that is the case, the question will be whether the candidates will be able to get their message out or whether it’ll be drowned out by all the messages flying out from all kinds of groups,” Krumholz said.

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