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Poll shows Sinema would narrowly beat Ward, McSally in Senate race

(AP Photos, Screenshot)
LISTEN: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights pollster

PHOENIX — An Arizona poll showed that while Kelli Ward has the name recognition over Martha McSally in Arizona’s GOP Senate primary, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema would beat them both in the general election.

“Grab your popcorn because the Arizona U.S. Senate will be the race to watch in 2018,” OH Predictive Insight managing partner Mike Noble told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Arizona’s Morning News on Wednesday.

The Phoenix-based behavioral research polling company released numbers in the morning that showed if voters were casting ballots now, U.S. Rep. Sinema would edge Ward 46 percent to 43 percent in a general election matchup.

“It would be a coin toss,” Noble said. The automated poll of 600 voters — Republicans, Democrats and independents — was conducted Nov. 9.

Sinema would also knock off fellow congresswoman McSally 46 percent to 45 percent.

Former state legislator Ward led McSally 42 percent 34 percent in the primary.

“When it comes to name ID, Ward has the advantage,” Noble said, pointing to Ward’s 85 percent name recognition among Republicans polled (59 percent favorable). McSally was at 60 percent (48 percent favorable).

Ward, from Lake Havasu City, resigned from the state Senate in December 2015 to run against U.S. Sen. John McCain.

After the loss, Ward then focused on Jeff Flake’s Senate seat. The 54-year-old has announced he would not seek re-election.

Noble pointed out that McSally wasn’t as well known outside of her home area of Pima County but that could change in the coming year. The former Air Force colonel has not officially declared herself in the race although she reportedly told colleagues a week ago that she was running.

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