Studies say Arizona will lose billions, coverage under latest health care plan

PHOENIX — Two studies indicated that the latest attempt to overhaul America’s health care system would have a significant negative impact on those living in Arizona.

A study from consulting firm Avalere Health said the new law would result in about $133 billion less in federal funding for Arizona, while the left-leaning Center for American Progress estimated about 511,000 Arizonans would lose health care coverage.

Avalere said the latest bill —  sponsored by Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Dean Heller (R-Nev.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) — would hit states that have expanded Medicare, such as Arizona, the hardest.

“The Graham-Cassidy bill would significantly reduce funding to states over the long term, particularly for states that have already expanded Medicaid,” Caroline Pearson, Avalere’s senior vice president, said.

“States would have broad flexibility to shape their markets but would have less funding to subsidize coverage for low- and middle-income individuals.”

Avalere said Arizona will have lost out on $11 billion in federal funding by 2026, with the number ballooning a decade later should Congress fail to renew block grant funding appropriated in the bill.

“A combination of slower Medicaid per-capita cap growth rates and the sunsetting of block grant funding would lead to substantial reductions in federal funds going to states through 2036,” Chris Sloan, a senior manager at Avalere, said.

The Center for American Progress said the Graham-Cassidy bill is similar to that of the Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act — often termed “repeal and replace” — that failed to pass in July.

The center said it based its figures on the Congressional Budget Office’s score of the reconciliation act, as the office will not have time to complete its full assessment of the Graham-Cassidy Senate bill before its voting deadline of Sept. 30.

However, the center said it was possible that more Americans could lose coverage under the latest health care reform attempt than other recent bills. It assumed that, while 42 million would likely lose coverage, 11 million would have coverage under an employer but that was not a concrete figure.

“Like the other repeal bills this year, Graham-Cassidy’s main features are cuts to premium subsidies, limits on Medicaid funding, and the lifting of protections for people with pre-existing conditions,” the center said.

“Those other bills were projected to increase the number of uninsured by tens of millions, and there’s no reason to believe that Graham-Cassidy would be any different.”

Graham-Cassidy has been met with mixed reviews by Arizona’s two senators. Sen. Jeff Flake told “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” the passage will come down to the “final few senators,” but he thinks the Senate will pass it.

Sen. John McCain — who dramatically tanked the previous fight to repeal Obamacare two months ago — told reporters on Monday that he is not “supportive of the bill yet” and wants it to go through “regular order” before the Sept. 30 deadline to repeal the health care bill with a simple majority Senate vote.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey has said he supports the latest bill.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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