PHOENIX — A popular polling website said Hillary Clinton will not only defeat Donald Trump in November, but Arizona will help put her in the White House.
FiveThirtyEight.com said Clinton has an 80 percent chance of winning the presidency based on the results of multiple polls. Her chances dip to a still-dominant 74 percent when polls and historical voting is taken into consideration.
Surprisingly, the site said Arizona will be a battleground state come November and, after 20 years, will support the presumed Democratic nominee, Clinton, for president.
But just barely. If only taking the polls into account, Clinton has a slight edge over Trump, the presumed Republican nominee, in Arizona. But if poll results are combined with economical and historical data, Trump’s chances of victory in the state jump through the roof.
The site goes onto say that Clinton will take the national popular vote by just 5 percent, but will win 100 more Electoral College votes that will push her to the presidency.
It also said Clinton’s chances of winning have been growing since June 8, when the site began tracking the numbers.
However, there is a caveat: In a deeper information page, the site said it figures the race will wind up getting closer as November approaches.
Of course, there is a long, long road to go until November and both Clinton and Trump have yet to formally be named the nominee of their party.
But it’s worth noting FiveThirtyEight used the same model to predict the outcome of both the 2008 and 2012 elections and predicted not only the winner, but most states that nominee would go on to win.
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