Donald Trump maintains lead over Kamala Harris in Arizona despite candidate change, poll says
Aug 27, 2024, 4:35 AM | Updated: 6:12 am
Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in Arizona in an NPI poll conducted earlier this month. (Getty Images Photos)
(Getty Images Photos)
PHOENIX — The flip from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee hasn’t affected Donald Trump’s lead in Arizona, according to a poll released Tuesday.
The poll from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) has Trump at 47% and Harris at 44%, with 9% of likely voters undecided. NPI’s last presidential poll, conducted in May and about two months before Biden dropped out, had Trump at 44% and Biden at 41%.
The poll was conducted Aug. 12-16, before the Democratic National Convention and before independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.
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“Almost every poll is somewhere between Harris plus-5 and Trump plus-5,” David Byler, NPI chief of research, said in a press release. “That suggests an almost tied race. We give a small edge to Trump in this poll but with more than two months to go, either candidate could win the state.”
The polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight has Harris leading in Arizona by 1.1%, while the RealClearPolitics average has Trump ahead by 0.2%.
What has changed in Arizona presidential polling in recent months?
Biden’s decision to drop out in late July and the switch to Harris at the top of the ticket has reenergized Democrats, according to NPI.
As a result, there are fewer undecided likely voters than in NPI’s previous poll.
Harris’ takeover has shifted likely voting patterns in some key demographics, according to NPI.
Independents and those ages 18-34 are more likely to vote Democrat now that Harris is the candidate. Hispanics/Latinos additionally had a 10-point jump in Harris’ favor.
NPI Founder and CEO Mike Noble believes Biden’s departure was the nail in the coffin in the candidacy for RFK Jr., who was polling at 5% in Arizona earlier this month.
“People are happier about the major party options now that Biden is gone,” Noble said. “That’s why RFK Jr. saw such a dramatic drop in the polls – and likely, in part, why he left the race.”
