New Arizona polling shows presidential tossup, with Senate race getting tighter

PHOENIX — Arizona polling conducted the week before Election Day shows the presidential race as a tossup and the U.S. Senate race getting tighter.

Republican Donald Trump has a slim 48%-47% lead over Democrat Kamala Harris in the race for the Grand Canyon State’s 11 electoral votes, according to findings released Thursday, five days before the 2024 general election, by Phoenix-based pollster Noble Predictive Insights (NPI).

Meanwhile, Democrat Ruben Gallego saw his lead over Republican Kari Lake shrink to 48%-44%.

NPI also asked respondents about Proposition 139, which would expand abortion rights in Arizona. The findings suggest that the measure is on its way to passing, with 57% yes vs. 33% no.

“This is a classic wedge issue,” David Byler, NPI chief of research, said in a press release. “Democrats are united. Independents lean heavily pro-choice. And Republicans are divided.”

Trump’s lead is within the margin of error in Arizona polling

The Arizona polling of likely voters was conducted Monday-Wednesday, just before the current vice president and former president appeared at Valley events on Thursday, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%. Trump’s lead of 1 percentage point is well within the margin of error, and Gallego’s lead of 4 points is just outside it.

“Lake has always had two problems. Republicans trust her less than they trust Trump, and a small group of independents who are willing to vote for Trump and Gallego,” Mike Noble, NPI founder and CEO, said in the release.

Lake expressed confidence when she appeared on KTAR News 92.3 FM’s The Mike Broomhead Show on Wednesday, saying her internal polling showed her ahead.

“I think our internal polling is accurate, I really do,” she said.

External polling has shown Gallego’s lead shrinking since the July primary elections. He led Lake by 10 percentage points when NPI conducted Arizona polling in May and 7 points in August.

“As Trump voters have come home to Lake, the gap has become smaller – but there’s still a gap. If Trump gains in the final stretch and beats his polls, he could pull Lake across the finish line. But our data shows that the most likely outcome is a split decision in favor of Trump and Gallego,” Noble said.

As of Friday morning, the polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics showed Trump with a 2.3-point lead over Harris in Arizona and Gallego with a 3.9-point lead in the Senate race.

Another poll aggregating website, FiveThirtyEight, showed Trump ahead by 2.3 points in Arizona and Gallego’s advantage at a comfortable 5.9 points.

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