ARIZONA NEWS

Arizona expert says end of COVID public health emergency could be near

Jan 18, 2022, 9:46 AM | Updated: 12:02 pm

PHOENIX – A prominent Arizona health expert said the omicron wave of COVID-19 is nearing its peak, and the end of the state’s public health emergency could soon follow.

“But the illness itself and the disease, the virus will be with us forever,” Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association and former director of the Arizona Department of Health Services, told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s The Mike Broomhead Show on Monday. “It will no longer be a public health emergency.”

Based on data from the United Kingdom and South Africa, Humble said he expects Arizona’s omicron-fueled spike of new COVID cases to top out in late January, followed by a drop in virus-related hospitalizations and deaths in February.

“And at that point I’m convinced that we’re going to transition to what’s called endemic, it will no longer be a pandemic, at least in the U.S., probably globally, really,” he said.

Arizona health officials have been reporting record levels of new COVID cases, with more than 20,000 on four of the last five days as of Tuesday.

The number of hospital inpatients with the virus has been climbing steadily since the start of January, but with omicron causing a smaller percentage of serious illnesses than previous variants, COVID-related ICU use has remained relatively stable.

Humble said the omicron variant has spread so quickly, and so many people have immunity from previous infection or vaccination, that the virus is on the verge of running out of potential hosts.

“I think it’s going drop like a rock. Once the virus ends up infecting the last susceptible person, it’s got nowhere else to go except breakthrough. And that’s going to keep happening,” he said.

“I mean, this [COVID] isn’t ever going away. The emergency is going to go away.”

Here’s the latest data on the pandemic in Arizona (hospital, case, death, testing and vaccination statistics are based on Tuesday morning’s update of the Arizona Department of Health Services COVID-19 dashboard; seven-day averages are based on tracking by The New York Times):

COVID-19 cases

  • Documented pandemic total – 1,645,694
  • Daily new reports – Tuesday: 23,836; One day earlier: 12,066; One week earlier: 14,160; Pandemic high: 24,982 (Jan. 15, 2022)
  • Seven-day average – Monday: 18,634; One day earlier: 18,901; One week earlier: 12,403; Pandemic high: 18,901 (Jan. 16, 2022)

COVID-19 deaths

  • Documented pandemic total – 25,395
  • Daily new reports – Tuesday: 183; One day earlier: 1; One week earlier: 213; Pandemic high: 335 (Jan. 12, 2021)
  • Seven-day average – Monday: 55; One day earlier: 63: One week earlier: 60; Pandemic high: 175 (Jan. 13, 2021)

COVID-19 hospitalizations

  • COVID inpatients – Monday: 3,228; One day earlier: 3,147; One week earlier: 2,869; Pandemic high: 5,082 (Jan. 11, 2021)
  • COVID ICU patients – Monday: 619; One day earlier: 616; One week earlier: 650; Pandemic high: 1,183 (Jan. 11, 2021)

Statewide hospital capacity

  • Inpatients beds available – Monday: 551 (6% of capacity); One day earlier: 496 (6%); One week earlier: 488 (6%)
  • Percentage of inpatient beds with COVID patients – Monday: 37%; One day earlier: 36%; One week earlier: 33%
  • ICU beds available – Monday: 92 (6% of capacity); One day earlier: 95 (6%); One week earlier: 89 (5%)
  • Percentage of ICU beds with COVID patients – Monday: 37%; One day earlier: 37%; One week earlier: 39%

Laboratory diagnostic testing

  • Weekly percent positivity – Samples taken this week: 32%; Last week: 33%; Two weeks ago: 29%; Pandemic high (for a completed week): 33% (Jan. 9-15, 2022)
  • Find a testing site: ADHS (statewide)

Vaccines

  • Percentage of eligible Arizonans fully vaccinated – As of Tuesday: 59.5%
  • Percentage of eligible Arizonans with at least one shot – As of Tuesday: 71.6%
  • Find a vaccine site: ADHS (statewide); Maricopa County Public Health (metro Phoenix)

Additional details

The ADHS daily case and death updates can cover multiple days of reporting because of data processing procedures and aren’t meant to represent the actual activity over the previous 24 hours. The hospitalization numbers posted each morning are reported electronically the previous evening by hospitals across the state.

The actual caseload is likely higher than officially reported because ADHS data is based mainly on electronic laboratory reporting and doesn’t include results from home kits unless individuals report them to their health care providers.

Vaccines have proven to reduce the likelihood of a COVID infection causing serious illness or death, even with the highly contagious omicron variant.

The minimum age for vaccination is 5 for Pfizer and 18 for Moderna or Johnson & Johnson. Boosters are approved, and highly encouraged, for individuals who received their second Pfizer (ages 12 and up only) or Moderna doses at least five months ago or the Johnson & Johnson shot at least two months ago.

We want to hear from you.

Have a story idea or tip? Pass it along to the KTAR News team here.

Arizona News

Arizona gas prices have risen by 28 cents per gallon in the last month....

Kevin Stone

Here’s why Arizonans are feeling more pain at pump than most of nation

Arizona gas prices have been rising at a significantly faster pace than the rest of the nation over the last month, and the worst is yet to come.

10 minutes ago

Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap has downsized his external communications staff from seven to ...

Associated Press

New Maricopa County recorder signals shift away from combating disinformation

Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap is moving away from the office's previous efforts to combat misinformation.

2 hours ago

2025 flu season worse than it's been in 15 years, data shows...

Serena O'Sullivan

Arizona nurse practitioner says this flu season is worse than last

The 2025 flu season is hitting Arizonans hard, with some patients staying sick for a whole week, according to a Banner Health nurse practitioner.

4 hours ago

climate change, young people, Mesa...

Roxanne De La Rosa

Young adults and teens combat climate change through Mesa initiative

A new Mesa grant initiative will allow young adults and teens to compete for funding for projects and ideas that address climate change.

4 hours ago

Fountain Hills law enforcement...

Roxanne De La Rosa

Fountain Hills announces drop in law enforcement costs without reduced service

A law enforcement contract between Fountain Hills and the Maricopa County Sheriff's Office will drop in cost in the upcoming year without any reduction in service.

4 hours ago

Investigators look at a crashed Learjet at Scottsdale Airport after it collided with a parked plane...

Associated Press

1 killed, 3 injured in Scottsdale Airport runway crash involving Mötley Crüe singer’s plane

One person died and three others were hurt when a plane owned by Mötley Crüe's singer collided with another plane the Scottsdale Airport runway.

13 hours ago

Sponsored Articles

...

Fiesta Bowl Foundation

Join us for the 52nd annual Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Parade

The 52nd annual Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Parade presented by Lerner & Rowe returns on Saturday, December 28, at 10 a.m.

...

Schwartz Laser Eye Center

Don’t miss the action with this game-changing procedure

PHOENIX -- The clear lens exchange procedure has emerged as a popular alternative to LASIK eye surgery.

...

Day & Night Air Conditioning, Heating and Plumbing

Why a Heating Tune-Up is Essential Before Winter

PHOENIX, AZ — With cooler weather on the horizon, making sure your heating system is prepped and ready can make all the difference in staying comfortable this winter.

Arizona expert says end of COVID public health emergency could be near