Arizona teacher raises possible due to increased revenue, economist says

PHOENIX — Most of the money to pay for the teacher pay raises will come from state revenue, which one Valley economist said was on an upward trajectory.

Dennis Hoffman, a professor of economics at Arizona State University’s W.P. School of Business, said he predicts the state revenue will grow between five and six percent over the next few years.

He said that should generate enough money to cover the 20 percent teacher pay raises that were included in the state budget.

“We’re in an uptick here in Arizona and upticks tend to bring pretty good times for fiscal policy and payments in the state of Arizona,” he said.

Gov. Doug Ducey signed the $10.4 billion state budget Thursday, effectively ending a week of teacher walkouts over low pay and inadequate education funding.

In addition to the 20 percent teacher pay raises for teachers, the budget also provided $371 million in additional assistance over the next five years.

Ducey initially proposed giving teachers a 1 percent pay raise this year, after giving them a 1 percent raise last year.

He proposed the 20 percent pay raise after new predictions showed state revenue was expected to grow faster than what was previously forecasted.

Hoffman said he was among the economists in Arizona that provided revenue forecasts to the governor’s office.

He provided one in November, which he said was “revised slightly upward through the year as we got better and better revenues.”

Still, some teachers have said they were concerned they will not see the full 20 percent increase in their paychecks.

The approved budget bill will give them a nine percent pay raise next year, in addition to the one percent raise they got last year. The rest of the pay raise would come by 2020.

Hoffman said he understands teachers’ concerns. But he said he’s optimistic teachers will get the full pay raises given the state’s economy is on an “upward cycle.”

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