PHOENIX — A poll released Tuesday said presidential nominees Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are essentially tied among likely voters in Arizona.
The poll from Monmouth University said Trump has a lead of just 1 percentage point in Arizona, well within the poll’s 4.9 percent margin of error. He leads Clinton 46-45.
About 4 percent of respondents said they plan to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1 percent support Green Party nominee Jill Stein. The remainder of respondents said they planned to vote for someone else or were undecided.
However, November’s general election results could differ from the poll depending on who casts a ballot. The poll said Trump’s lead gets larger when only factoring in those who plan to vote, but Clinton leads among those who have already voted.
“Clinton is banking a significant advantage in Arizona’s early vote,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said. “Trump has to count on every other voter who says they are supporting him now to actually show up on Election Day.”
Both nominees have low favorability among Arizonans. The poll said 34 percent hold Trump in a positive light, while 32 percent feel the same for Clinton.
The poll was conducted by phone between Oct. 21 and Oct. 24 and 401 people participated.
A slightly larger number of independent and Republican likely voters participated in the poll and the results were weighted to reflect that.