Analyst: ‘Trump Effect’ could negatively affect Republicans in Arizona races
Oct 17, 2016, 5:23 AM | Updated: 11:21 am
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally, Thursday, Oct. 13, 2016, in Cincinnati, Ohio. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)
(AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)
PHOENIX — The controversies surrounding presidential nominee Donald Trump could have a negative impact on other Republicans’ races in Arizona, an analyst said.
Political analyst Mike O’ Neil said the so-called “Trump Effect” is gaining momentum as more polls show Trump trailing his rival, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
O’Neil said Trump’s decline could have a sobering effect on Republican voters, who may choose to stay home.
“That may hurt congressional candidates [and] senatorial candidates,” he said.
Considering Democratic voting turnout tends to be higher in presidential election years, the Trump Effect could mean some of Arizona’s propositions have a better chance of passing.
“And it might aide in Arizona, cases like the minimum wage and marijuana proposals, both of which tend to be more favored by Democrats and independents,” O’Neil said.
The Republicans that opt to stay home will also have an impact on the propositions, as they are the most likely to vote against them.
“So that phenomena tends to aid those propositions in all probability,” O’Neil said.
It’s all tied together.
“On the one, hand both the minimum wage and the marijuana initiative might be expected to bring out voters that tend to be more Democratic,” O’Neil said. “Secondly, the proposals are also aided by the fact that this is a presidential election.”
