The latest States of the Nation project poll by Reuters and Ipsos States shows three states that were thought to be in favor of either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton as a toss-up, including Arizona.
The national online opinion poll that had more than 15,000 people included, runs millions of simulations in order to determine the chances of their poll becoming true. This week’s edition of the poll has the chances of Clinton winning at 88 percent, with the Democratic nominee holding a distinct 246 to 180 lead in the Electoral College.
In Arizona, 46 percent of votes were to Trump while 44 percent to Clinton, a big turn since Trump has previously held an advantage in past polls. Trump makes his sixth trip to Arizona Tuesday, speaking in Prescott Valley on the heels of the Vice Presidential debate.
A surprising development in 2016 has been Arizona’s transformation into a battleground state. Bill Clinton is the only Democrat to win the state since 1952. Arizona’s electoral votes continue to increase with its growing population, up to 11 through the 2020 election due to a roughly 25 percent increase in the past decade.
Florida and Ohio, two states that were favoring Clinton, are also seen as very close by the poll.
The States of the Nation poll also runs different scenarios based on specific group turnouts, such as millennials, men and women. The poll estimates that if only women were voting Clinton’s chances of winning would be more than 95 percent, while Trump’s would be 86 percent if only men could vote.