Doug: It's just a beginning

The news room is a scramble. The bald boss man wants all hands on deck. E-mails are exploding. It's a huge story. Shaq's been traded. It's all over the place.

I have a completely different stance: Quit looking at Cleveland or you'll miss what's about to happen.

Despite having a minor in History, I don't deal with the past very much. We live in a society where you're ridiculed for saying I told you so. I told you the Shaq trade was a bad trade because Marion is a free agent now and Shaq's got another $20 million coming to him after Marion would have been off the books. The trade of Shaq was a salary dump.

Depending on the possible retirement of Wallace and the cost of his buyout, this could save the Suns anywhere between $4.5 million to $17 million. It's a good trade under the circumstances but I won't give them much credit because it doesn't make up for the original mistake. I was right then and I'm proven right now, so start the ridicule.

This Shaq trade was close to happening before the trade deadline. I think the Suns wanted to stand firm and get a pick for the deal which wasn't being offered. Now that Cleveland threw in another pick, it gives the Suns more leverage in their next move.

I said two months ago I thought Shaq would be traded. I said two weeks ago I thought the Shaq trade to Cleveland was going to happen. Maybe the reason why things happen that I say "I think will happen," has less to do with fortune telling skills and more to do with, well, I'll let you come to your own conclusions.

The reason I'm not flipping out about the Shaq trade is what's coming up tomorrow. I think the Suns have about 4 trade scenarios all ready to go but none of them will happen until their spot on the clock starts ticking because their trade partner wants to see what's on the table when the Suns pick.

Minnesota has too many picks in the first round to pay four guaranteed contracts. Do you think Jordan Hill is that dramatically different than Amare was when Amare came out of HS? Hill already has the desire to win that's higher than Amare's and he's a better defender. Hill doesn't have a jumper but neither did Amare when he came to Phoenix. Hill will be there with the 6th pick, the second of the two that Minnesota is holding.

Memphis knows they've got real problems and will listen to any move into the 2 spot to get lots of pieces. I think they'd like a few pieces and then to trade down to get a "I'm happy to be here type" like Blair or Hansbrough who will work hard no matter who takes them. Losing Shaq still leaves a hole in the middle. Thabeet fills that hole with shot blocking while they can get their offense from everyone else. I seem to recall Memphis' coach saying he was the reason why an Amare trade to Memphis didn't go through before because there were too many pieces going out of Memphis and not enough coming in. I wonder how he feels about it now?

So you really think that D'Antoni is the only person within the Suns that love the way the game is taught in Europe. Dragic proved that he can play, but he's also not the playmaker for others that Rubio is. Rubio learns under Nash and the Suns aren't trapped in Nash negotiations for two years.

I realize if the pickings are thin at 14, everything I've said falls apart. What Memphis/OKC/Minnesota wants at 14 has to be there, and one of those teams needed to draft who the Suns want to get some 10 picks earlier. If you're a Suns fan, everyone will watch who the Suns draft @ 14. I'm going to be watching who might be drafting for the Suns much earlier in the evening.