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The City of Phoenix's economic recovery will continue at a moderate pace, gaining momentum next year with a full recovery expected in 2015 or 2016, the city's budget office said in a report.

Based on numerous economic experts and studies, the city finds sluggish consumer spending and modest job growth contributing to a slower recovery.

The report finds it will take three years or more to regain the jobs lost since the recession started. It also says businesses and consumers appear to be in a holding pattern until it becomes clear how federal policy will affect them.

Other assumptions built into the forecast:

• Personal income to grow an average of 6.7 percent for the five-year forecast.
• Increases in consumer and business spending is expected later in the forecast .
• Contributing job growth in most sectors, but lagging supply of high-quality and high-paying jobs in Phoenix is contributing to the prevention of a strong recovery.

Christina Estes, Reporter

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